| Initially,interbank business was restricted to interbank borrowing,which was used to deal with the shortcome liquidity issues.While after 2010,China get rid of the financial crisis,there comes a great change in macroeconomic polices,and regulators start to strenthen the management of banks’ credit risk,with composite measures of credit lines,capital-restriction and deposit/loan ratio control.In this contest,in order to avoid various regulations and maintain the expansion of asset scale and keep the growth of profit,commercial banks began to actively seek the cooperation of interbank,which caused the scale of interbank business grew rapidly.By the end of 2018,the year balance of Chinese commercial banks’ interbank assets has risen tenfoldto 54.6trillion approximately.Interbank assets accounted for 20 percent of banks’ total assets.The year balance of commercial banks’ interbank laibilities increased 7.5 times than that of 2007,to 29.3 trillion,accounted for 12 percent of banks total liabilities.In 2003,people’s bank of China once pointed out that the broad money(M2)created through commerrcial banks’ interbank business was more than that created through funds oustanding for foreign exchange and security investment,and supassed only by that created through RMB loans.Recently,the proportion of bank loan in total social financing declined gradually.And a great ammount of social financing is provided through new types of interbank business directly or indirectly.By the end of 2018,trust loans and entrust loans of interbank business account has aggregately provided 20.2 trillion liquidity facilities for entity economy,which accounted for 10 percent of total social financing.If measured as the difference between interbank assets and interbank liabilities,the liquidity facilities provided by commercial banks through interbank business has reached 25.3 trillion.As mentioned above,interbank business also has the power of money creation,and with the continuous expansion of the scale,traditional monetary policy,as well as its intermediate target and effectiveness,is significantly affected.Existing researches mostly discuss the relationship between interbank business and monetary policy effectiveness based on linear panel data model and VAR model,failing to take the asymmetry of monetary policy,which was raised in the last century by scholars such as Keynes(1939),Friedman(1968),Cover(1992)etc,into account.Thus,to make up the shortcoming of the current researches and provide further suggestions for regulators,by applying a two regimes MS-VAR model,this dissertation studies that how the scales of interbank business influence monetary policy effectiveness in different regimes.The final results of this study show that:(1)The impact of interbank business scale on monetary policies effectiveness shows obvious characteristics of regimes switching.(2)In the state of rapid economic growth,the expansion of interbank business will lead to a decline in industrial added value;Under the condition of high-speed economic growth,the expansion of interbank business scale will lead to an increase of industrial added value.(3)When prices increase in a relatively lower speed,the expansion of interbank business shows positive effect on the consumers’ price index;when prices increase rapidly,the impact above is negative.At last,some policy suggestions are given as follows: regulators,must strengthen standardization and transparency of interbank business,diversify supervision indexes,improve policy framework for exercising macro-control and reinforce the management of expectations. |
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