Research On The Trade Effect Of The US Launching 301 Survey On China

In August 2017,US President Trump instructed the US Trade Representative Office(USTR)to conduct a 301 investigation on China.In 2018,the US announced that they would impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth US$50 billion and US$200billion.China immediately counterattacked.The Sino-US trade war has been kicked off and has been heating up.The impact of the Sino-US trade war on the domestic economy will be one of the challenges facing the domestic economy in the years 2018 and beyond.Therefore,it is urgent and necessary to assess the impact of the Sino-US trade war on the Chinese economy.When studying the impact of the US “301 investigation” on China's economy,this paper firstly described the export trade effect generated by the “301 Survey”.The impact on China mainly includes the trade investigation effect and trade deflection.Three aspects of effect and trade inhibition effect;then,the monthly data of 70 codes of HS code from May 2017 to June 2018 were selected for research,all of which were from the UN Trade Database,the National Bureau of Statistics website and Wind.China's macro-database and global macro-database,through the construction of dynamic panel data model,and using Stata15.1 to empirically test the export trade effect of China's multiple categories of products,and finally established a structural equation model to study the US launch of "301 investigation of China" "Influencing factors on the effect of China's export trade.The results show:1.In the trade restriction effect of the investigation stage,the regression coefficient of the core virtual explanatory variable AD(whether the Chinese product is subject to the US 301 survey)in the model is-0.2449857;in the trade transfer effect of the investigation stage,the core dummy variable AD The regression coefficient is also negative,and the coefficient value is-0.3453463.Therefore,the United States initiated a 301 investigation against China.Whether or not it will eventually be affirmative,the short-term will reduce China's exports to the United States and reduce its export share,but long-term trade.The limiting effect is not obvious.2.The United States tends to import products with a dominant comparative advantage in China.If China's products with strong dominant comparative advantages suffer from the US 301 investigation,even if the export will be restrained,China's exports will decline,but the export of dominant comparative advantage will bebrought.The increase can offset the adverse effects of the US 301 investigation.3.The larger the economy of China and the higher the economic level,China will have more exports to the United States,and the export value of the previous period will have a positive impact on the current export volume.Behind the Sino-US trade friction is the change of the US positioning of China.Therefore,in studying the US response to China's trade restrictions,we will divide the measures into short-term countermeasures and long-term countermeasures.Short-term countermeasures include bilateral negotiations.Combine with multilateral negotiations,strengthen cooperation with third-party countries,and loose domestic economic policies.Long-term response measures include rational adjustment of industrial layout,promotion of independent innovation and upgrading of industrial structure,and accelerated reform and opening up to enhance effective supply and demand.