Research On The Trade Effect Of US AD And CVD Investigations Against China

Since China joined the WTO in 2001,China's economy has developed rapidly,and foreign trade has also achieved remarkable results.China's total trade volume reached 4.1052 trillion US dollars In 2017,once again becoming the world's largest trading country.Especially in today's global economic slowdown and counter-globalization boom,China's economic prosperity is even more eye-catching,which makes China become a major target for countries to implement trade remedy measures.the United States is the country that initiated the most trade remedy measures against China in the world.In particular,since the new U.S.government took office in 2017,under the slogan of "United States priority",it has abandoned the basic norms of international exchanges such as mutual respect and equal consultation,practised unilateralism,protectionism and economic hegemonism,and made a series of false accusations against China.China has been intimidated by the continued imposition of tariffs and trade remedies.According to data from the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China,the United States initiated 22 trade remedy investigations against China in 2017,10 were countervailing investigations,10 were anti-dumping investigations,and 2 were safeguard measures Among them,involving a total amount of US$4.5 billion.the United States has broken the recognition of China as a non-market economy country Since 2006,and for the first time conducted a countervailing investigation on China's coated paper.the AD and CVD investigation investigation became a new means for the United States to implement trade remedy measures against China Since then,as of 2017,the United States has implemented 67 AD and CVD measures against China.The investigation against China means that a higher tax rate will be imposed than the separate anti-dumping or countervailing measures,which will have a serious impact on China's exports and economic development.This paper firstly reviews the actuality and dynamics of the AD and CVD investigations and research at home and abroad,and introduces the research structure,main content,innovations and deficiencies of this paper.Then it summarizes the actuality of foreign countries' AD and CVD investigations against China,and sorts out the number of AD and CVD complaints from China from 2004 to 2017.On this basis,we further analyze the actuality,characteristics and reasons of the United States' implementation of AD and CVD to China.The introduction of the RCA index,the purpose is to study whether the United States has implemented a AD and CVD against China and whether there is a direct causal relationship between the competitive advantage of Chinese products in the US market;Next the author analyzes the anti-dumping research theoretically and explains the four trade effects caused by AD and CVD in the form of diagrams: trade restriction effect,trade transfer effect,trade deflection effect,trade inhibition effect.The theory of economic effect of tariff and the model of price competition are used to further prove the trade restriction effect and trade diversion effect caused by AD and CVD.Next,empirical analysis is made on the trade effect caused by the AD and CVD of the United States.a statistical description is made on the trade restriction effect and trade diversion effect of the AD and CVD products of the United States to China.On this basis,104 products under 58 cases are taken as an example,the time span is from 2004 to 2017.The trade restriction effect and trade diversion effect produced in the investigation stage,final adjudication stage and general stage are respectively studied.The results show that the AD and CVD of the United States has obvious trade restriction effect and trade diversion effect on China,which has a serious restriction on China's export.Among them,the effect of the trade investigation stage is more significant than that of the final determination stage.That is,as long as the United States launches AD and CVD investigation against China,whether the final determination is positive or not,the export volume and share of China's products involved in the case to the United States will decrease.The explicit comparative advantage of products can promote China's export to the United States,and this promotion can offset the adverse effect of the AD and CVD of the United States.Meanwhile,exchange rate and GDP are also important factors affecting China's exports to the us.according to the above research results,policy Suggestions are given from the three dimensions of government,industry and enterprise.First of all,the government should strive for China's market economy status as soon as possible,encourage enterprises to use technological means to achieve industrial structure upgrading,implement export market diversification,encourage enterprises to direct investment abroad,improve the domestic subsidy system related laws and regulations;The industry association should conduct effective guidance and training for enterprises,and lead enterprises to do a good job in the construction of the "dual anti" early warning mechanism;Enterprises should strengthen the early-warning mechanism,actively cooperate with the investigation and strengthen the cooperation with relevant interest groups in the United States.