Statistical Analysis Of Local Government Debt Risk In Henan Province

In recent years,local governments have promoted the construction of public utilities and obtained financial funds through borrowing debts,which has played a positive role in promoting local economic and social development in a certain period of time.At the same time,however,the negative effects of the scale of the expanding local government debt have gradually emerged.Especially in the process of China's economic growth from high-speed growth to low-to-low-speed growth,the local government's debt repayment pressure has doubled.If it cannot be effectively disposed,it will not only cause local debt default crisis,but even cause regional economic harm.At present,domestic research on local government debt has not yet formed a systematic and standardized risk management system,and local government debt risk research needs to be improved.As a representative province of economic development in the central region of Henan Province,studying the problem of local government debt has certain reference significance for other provinces in the country.This paper first introduces the background and significance of the research on local government debt in Henan Province.It summarizes the domestic and foreign literatures from the three aspects of local government debt risk theory,risk causes and risk management.Then it introduces the related concepts of local government debt.And discuss the causes of local government debt risk in three aspects: financial development trend,investment and financing control mechanism,debt supervision accountability system;secondly,combined with Wind database and government documents issued debt data from Henan provincial government and municipal governments Descriptive statistical analysis of the current situation of local government debt in Henan Province;then,using the statistical databook of Henan Province and the relevant data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,the KMV model and the extended KMV model are selected respectively,based on the central government transfer payment.Reimbursement and consideration of the central government's transfer payment and repayment perspective,comprehensively predict and analyze the debt default distance and its default probability of Henan Province and municipal governments in 2018-2020.The empirical results show that the Henan provincial government has a low debt default probability from 2018 to 2020 without considering the central government transfer payment for government debt repayment,and is in a risk-controllable state.As the proportion of assumed debt-paying ratios expands,the probability of default for each municipal-level local government debt will gradually increase.When the proportion of debt-paying debts increased to 15%,local governments in various cities began to have a debt default probability of more than 0.05%.When the proportion of debt-paying debt reached 30%,Hebi City,Fuyang City,Nanyang City and Jiyuan City Government debt has a large local government debt default risk,and local governments should pay attention to it.After joining the central government's transfer payment repayment factors,the default distances of Henan and local governments will be further expanded,and the probability of default will be further reduced.Under the assumption of the scale of debt demand,there will be no obvious debt default.The innovation of this paper lies in the quantitative empirical analysis of the local government debt risk in Henan Province from the perspective of province and city through reasonable assumptions of data.At the same time,the introduction of government transfer payment repayment factors makes the article have strong practical significance.The main disadvantages are: the limitation of the data makes the scale of the fiscal revenue that can be used for repayment of debts and the scale of the debt to be repaid and the actual value may be deviated,which will affect the analysis effect to some extent.