A Research On The Risk Of Debt Of Local Government

At the 19th National Congress of the CPC,we should speed up and improve the supervision system of financial risks and stick to the bottom line that systemic financial risks do not occur.The causes of financial risks are complex and varied.In recent years,with the economic development entering a new normal,the financial risks caused by local government debt risk have formed a greater incentive.At present,"guarding against financial risks" has become one of the key battles,which shows the seriousness and complexity of local government debt risk.Therefore,it is urgent to study the risk early warning of local government debt comprehensively and objectively.As early as 2010,the Ministry of Finance,the National Development and Reform Commission,the Central Bank and the Banking Regulatory Commission jointly launched the investigation of local government financing platform companies.Subsequently,the central government increased the code year by year to strengthen local government debt management,and subdivided into emergency plans,general debt budget management,special debt budget management,new debt quota allocation management,land reserve special bond management and so on.This paper takes the characteristics,risks and causes of local government debt as the main line of the article.Firstly,it expounds the relevant research viewpoints and achievements of domestic and foreign scholars on local government debt,and further analyses the causes and risk warning research of local government debt combined with domestic and foreign viewpoints.Secondly,this paper focuses on the current situation of local government debt in China.Thirdly,on the basis of national qualitative analysis,the local government debt of Jiangsu Province,which is very similar to the economic differences of eastern,central and western parts of China,is selected for qualitative analysis,from three aspects:obvious regionalization characteristics,large scale of implicit debt and large debt risk.Fourthly,this paper uses KMV model to quantitatively analyze the debt situation of local government in Jiangsu Province,and combines the current situation of local economy of the province and 13 prefecture-level cities,to analyze the characteristics,causes and early warning measures.Generally speaking,although the local government debt in Jiangsu Province is large in scale,the debt risk is generally within the scope of control.Finally,according to the analysis results of three levels of the whole country,Jiangsu Province and Jiangsu prefecture-level cities,focusing on the key points of local government debt risk management,this paper strengthens budgetary constraints,improves internal control,and establishes a wind.Specific suggestions on risk early warning mechanism are put forward.