| With the rapid development of urbanization in China,the demand for urban land continues to increase,and the contradiction between supply and demand has become more serious.In this context,how to balance economic development and sustainable land use has received widespread attention.Improving urban land use efficiency is an important method to alleviate the above contradictions.Accurate evaluation of urban land use efficiency is the basis for improving efficiency.The land development intensity in Jiangsu Province is relatively high,and the contradiction between people and land is very prominent.This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal differences of land use efficiency among 13 cities in Jiangsu Province during 2003-2016,and simulates the allocation of construction land in the Jiangsu Province in 2020 based on the evaluation results.The research mainly includes the following aspects:(1)By reading a large amount of literature,the influencing factors of urban land use efficiency were summarized and the key influencing factors were identified by DEMATEL method.Based on the key influencing factors,the evaluation system was constructed,and the interactions between the evaluation indicators was analyzed qualitatively.(2)Based on the characteristics of urban land use efficiency evaluation and the inadequacies of existing research methods,combined with Bi-capacity and TODIM method,the Bi-TODIM method was constructed.The rationality of the method is verified by demonstrating the relevant properties of the method.The feasibility of the method is verified by an example.(3)Using the Bi-TODIM method,the comprehensive evaluation values and ranking of land use efficiency in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province from 2003 to 2016 were obtained,and the sensitivity analysis of the loss avoidance coefficient in Bi-TODIM method was carried out.According to the evaluation results,the convergence of urban land use efficiency in Jiangsu Province is analyzed.The results show that the land use efficiency of each city can not only converge to their own steady level,but also converge to a common steady level.(4)According to the comprehensive evaluation value of land use efficiency of each city in 2015,the asynchronous evolution interval is determined;the C5.0 decision tree algorithm is used to determine the conversion probability and conversion rules of each city.Based on the asynchronous partitioned cellular automaton model,the distribution of construction land in Jiangsu Province in 2020 was simulated,and the optimal efficiency allocation scheme was obtained. |
