| Currently, the Chinese economy is developing rapidly, and urbanization process is increased, the land use change significantly, especially in the developed coastal regions of china, with the coastal development strategy developing, the land use change is particularly fast. The rapid development of economy promote land use development level, but at the same time it cause cultivated land depletion, land degradation, and the ecological environment deteriorated gradually. Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics and evolution of land use, analyzing the land use change driving forces, establish effective and practical model of land use change for monitoring, simulating and predicting land use change, can provide scientific basis for sustainable development of land use change direction and spatial distribution.This dissertation selected Xianju county, Zhejiang province as the research area, using remote sensing techniques and GIS spatial analysis function, research on land use change process, driving force and simulation and prediction model. Analyzing and understanding of the basic characteristics of land use, spatio-temporal evolution rule and driving force, simulating and predicting the land use change, by use multi-source remote sense data. The main research achievements in this dissertation were as follows:(1) This study adopted multi-dates images and multi-sensors (Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+and CBERS-02CCD as the data sources. Classified multi-dates images by using Supervised classification. Got the five different periods land use map of Xianju County finally. Analyzed1984-2009land use change processes, revealing the basic characteristics of Xianju land use change.1984-2009to25years of land use changed dramatically, including farm land6383.60hectares, the annual change rate of1.04%; construction land4008.98hectares, the annual change rate of2.85%; woodland increased by14549.58hectares, the annual change rate of0.4%; garden a decrease of25,255.94hectares, the annual change rate of6.03%. Water increased by313.79hectares, the annual change rate of0.21%.(2) Contraposed the characteristics of Xianju County land use change and the different action modes of driving force, from natural geographic, socio-economic point of view to study the driving force mechanism. The direction of Xianju land-use change and spatial distribution had a close relationship with topography. Economic development has a huge role to promote land-use change of Xianju, in particular, to promote the rapid expansion of construction land; traffic conditions are very significant role in promoting land use change, spatial analysis results show that the farm land had a large proportion nearby the highway within a distance of1000m range, over time, the area of construction land near the highway increased gradually; the conditions of socio-economic as gross domestic product (GDP), total fiscal revenue, investment in fixed assets, GDP per capita and other factors has linear correlation between expansion of construction land space.(3) According to the characteristics of land use Change and driving force of Xianju, establish a simulation and prediction of land-use change model based on case-based reasoning and cellular automata. This model does not need to define a specific transformation rules, but through the case implied to express the transformation rules, to solver the difficult problems of getting conversion rules, therefore, it greatly enhance the efficiency of application of the model. The CBR-CA is applied to simulate the land-use change Xianju from1995to2005, the results show that the model simulation results with high precision, higher consistent with the actual situation degrees. Finally, the model also predicted the2015land-use change Xianju. |
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