Research On Debt Risk Control Of Anhui Government Under The Background Of New Urbanization

In the process of promoting the construction of new urbanization,it is necessary to invest a lot of funds and manpower,and the financial revenue of governments at all levels often can not meet their construction needs.In order to smoothly achieve the goal of promoting the new urbanization construction,the government often chooses to solve the problem by large-scale borrowing,but this practice will inevitably increase the risk of government debt.Therefore,how to coordinate the relationship between new urbanization construction and government debt risk has become an urgent problem to be solved.Taking Anhui Province as an example,on the premise of following the principles of systematicness,comparability and dynamism,this paper first describes the phenomena,then analyses the causes of debt,and then carries out risk measurement.Finally,it puts forward the research ideas of targeted policy recommendations,and further studies how local governments should balance the spear of urbanization construction and government debt risk in the process of promoting the new urbanization construction.Shield,in order to achieve reasonable financing,so as to avoid debt risk.In the stage of risk measurement,this paper constructs four index systems,including scale risk,structural risk,management risk and debt repayment risk,and then uses the entropy method to measure the local debt risk of Anhui Province directly.The results show that the scale risk and structural risk of local debt in Anhui province are widespread in the whole province,but there is little difference among the regional governments;the management risk is more prominent in the northern Anhui region;and the debt repayment risk is more prominent in the central region.Next,the KMV model is used to explore the security and rationality of the scale of local government debt in Anhui Province,and to evaluate the default probability of local government in Anhui Province under different scale of debt.Comparing with the current liable debts,we can see that the debt risk of local governments in Anhui Province is not uncontrollable,and the probability of default is not very high,but still need to be attached great importance.Finally,in view of the current situation of debt risk of local governments inAnhui Province from the perspective of new urbanization,and combined with the results of empirical analysis,the following policy recommendations are put forward:in the new urbanization,we should improve the understanding of the necessity of borrowing debt for local governments to promote new urbanization,expand the sources of debt funds of local governments,and make rational use of land resources.In terms of financial system,we should deepen the reform of tax distribution system,transfer payment system,build local government financial repayment mechanism,and innovate asset securitization.In the aspect of debt management,we should strengthen the study of local government debt risk control,encourage the government to make regular financial reports,and strengthen budget management.