Ahp Service Reliability Based On Load Forecast Analysis Decision-making Model

With the high development of modern computer technology,electronics,reliability engineering, modern switching equipment had a significant increase in performance and reliability. But compared to the continuous upgrading and improvement of the equipment, Maintenance strategy remained breakdown maintenance with high spare parts inventory, results in significant maintenance costs. Mainly the following problems:Use sufficient spare parts for the system steady-state probability instead of system availability; Failed to consider the relationship between loading fluctuations and system availability; Use subjective judgments on specific maintenance personnel to replace the objective and quantitative analysis of system availability; The maintenance personnel to determine multi-objective maintenance strategy instead of operations research analysis methods.In view of the existing maintenance problems in the telecommunications maintenance strategy, the dissertation propose the AHP analysis decision model based on Load forecasting and reliability analysis to help the maintainers to select the appropriate maintenance strategy. Comparing with the maintenance decision now in use the AHP analysis decision model based on Load forecasting and reliability analysis proposed by the dissertation have the following improvement:(1) Forecasting the exchange system load by Winter methods, and adjusting the results by Delphi method, considering the relationship between exchange load and system reliability(2) Combing Markov process and load forecasting to calculate the components availability, reducing human error of subjective estimates.(3) Combing Analytical method and Monte Carlo method to calculate the system availability, reducing human error of subjective estimates.(4) Proposing the AHP analysis decision model based on Load forecasting and reliability analysis to help the maintainers to select the appropriate maintenance strategy.