The Impact Of Internet On International Trade In Services Under The Framework Of Complex Networks

With the economic development of global integration and the ever-changing deepening innovation of technology,the status of international trade in the global economy is increasingly prominent,especially the development of service trade has attracted much attention.At the same time,the third industrial revolution brought by the Internet has brought revolutionary changes to the service sector.The problems of distance,time and cost faced by the international service trade have been solved in a new way,making the service sectors develop rapidly.In addition,under the influence of Internet technology,the global trading party and business model has undergone a huge transformation,and has been gradually linked with cross-border data and network,gradually deepening the reform.In the context of rapid development of Internet technology,many developed countries and emerging economies are urgently seeking to use emerging technologies to promote the development of national trade.In recent years,the analysis method of complex network has become the research hotspot of economics and trade at home and abroad,which turns the study of international trade to a new perspective.Many complex systems or connections can be reflected in the complex network.Based on the analysis framework of complex network,this paper starts with the structural characteristics of network,such as the number of edges and density,and analyzes the current situation and overall characteristics of the service trade export network of 36 countries in OECD as well as the subdivision network according to factor intensity.Then,the centrality analysis of nodes in the network is used to describe the status and role of each country in the network in OECD.Then,in order to study the impact of Internet technology on the export of service trade,this paper summarizes the mechanism and approach of the effect of Internet on service trade,laying a foundation for the empirical test in the following part.Finally,an empirical analysis is conducted based on the extended trade gravity model,and QAP analysis method is used to calculate the effect of the proportion difference of Internet users and other influencing factors on the bilateral service trade export.This paper is divided into six parts: chapter one,introduction.The main contents of this part include the research background,purpose and significance of this paper,the research ideas,framework,method of this paper,as well as the possible innovation points in this paper.Chapter two,literature review.This paper mainly reviews,sorts out and comments on three aspects: the evolution and development of trade network theory,the research on the influence of Internet on international service trade and the research on the influencing factors of service trade.The third chapter,the service trade export relations network construction and the present situation analysis.This part is mainly constructed bilateral service trade export network of 36 countries of the OECD,from the scale of the network,average path length and tightness in 2000-2014,changes in 36 countries in the OECD in the organization of the bilateral service trade flows to make overall description,and use the centrality analysis,research status and role in the network.In chapter four,this paper summarizes the influence mechanism of Internet on service trade from three aspects: reducing trade cost,promoting technological innovation and enhancing trade openness.The fifth chapter is the empirical research on the influence of Internet on service trade.Through the establishment of econometric model and QAP analysis method,the paper examines the effect of the proportion difference of national Internet users on the export volume of service trade,and discusses the effect of other influencing factors on the export volume of bilateral service trade.Chapter six,main conclusions and policy recommendations.Combining with the OECD relationship between the service trade export of the 36 countries in the organization development present situation,and the Internet usage for OECD countries bilateral service trade export effect,the influence of the Internet to promote the consistency of the nation's service trade development,and on how to promote the steady development of trade in services through the Internet gives corresponding suggestions.Based on the above analysis,this paper comes to the following conclusions: first,the total export network of service trade presented a relatively stable pattern from 2000 to 2014,and the financial crisis had little impact on it.All three kinds of subdivided networks showed an inverted u-shaped change trend of "pre-rise,post-decline".In addition,the tightness of the complete network is high,especially the labor-intensive service export network.At the same time,the complete network has better accessibility,among which the labor-intensive subdivision network has the highest accessibility.The concentration in the service trade export network is also very obvious.Second,according to the analysis of degree centrality,France,Germany,Chile,Britain,the United States and Japan have more direct trade in services with other OECD countries,so they are in the core position in the network.Secondly,it can be seen from the measurement of betweeness centrality that Latvia,Slovenia,Slovakia,Iceland,Estonia and other countries play the intermediary role in the network.In addition,the measurement of closeness centrality indicates that Chile,Iceland,Israel,Ireland,Mexico,Switzerland have higher closeness centrality,so these countries have higher trade accessibility.Thirdly,the proportion difference of Internet users has a significant negative effect on the export of bilateral service trade.Meanwhile,the difference in population size has a significant negative effect on the export quantity of bilateral service trade,and the difference in economic size has a significant positive effect on the export quantity of bilateral service trade.The geographical distance between the two countries will hinder the development of bilateral trade in services.In comparison,the years when common language played a significant role were few,but it still had a significant promoting effect on bilateral service export.Fourthly,the empirical results of country classification further prove that the proportion difference,population size difference of Internet users and geographical distance have an inhibitory effect on bilateral service export,as well as the promotion effect of economic size difference and common language on bilateral service export.In addition,the proportion difference of population using Internet has a smaller impact on the founder country than other member countries,while the difference of economic scale has a greater promoting effect on the service trade of the founder country than other member countries.Fifth,the difference in Internet use between the two countries has a significant inhibitory effect on the three service exports with different factor intensities,especially on the labor-intensive and knowledge-intensive service sectors.The difference in economic scale between the two countries has a significant effect on the export of labor-intensive,capitalintensive and knowledge-intensive services,and the labor-intensive and knowledgeintensive sectors are more affected.Geographical distance has a significant inhibitory effect on all three,among which the most significant inhibitory effect is on labor-intensive service export,while common language mainly promotes laborintensive and capital-intensive service export.The above results indicate that: first,the development trend of the global economy in recent years that the Internet,the impact of the development of a country's trade in services so that more effective measures and policies should be launched as soon as possible,and promote the development of service trade in China,more and more opportunities to think about how to combine the development of the Internet,to better promote the competitiveness of service trade in our country.Secondly,the development of economic individuals should be combined with the popularization of the Internet.In particular,more encouragement and support should be given to cross-border e-commerce integrated service platforms,so as to further increase the proportion of their exports in China's total exports.Thirdly,we should fully understand and make use of the concept and background of "Internet +".When encountering difficulties in international trade,we should use Internet thinking to promote the combination of cloud computing,Internet and big data with service industry and manufacturing industry,and further promote the progress of new development models such as Internet finance and e-commerce.The possible innovation of this paper lies in: first,the Internet and bilateral trade exports into the framework of the complex network analysis,both by the number of nodes,the number of edges and density,the overall architecture of the network characteristic value show on OECD countries bilateral trade in services exports to comb the evolution of the development,and through the comparison of three kinds of centricity of each node,make a concrete analysis to each node in the micro level.Secondly,Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP)was used to perform a correlation and regression analysis of Quadratic trade in services networks,Internet use and other factors affecting OECD countries.As one of the most commonly used methods in network analysis,QAP method can test whether there is a relationship between relational data and there is no "multicollinearity" problem,and the result is more robust.