Does Sino-US Trade Friction Affect The Development Of China's Service Trade?

Sino-US trade friction has brought about profound changes to the economy in the world.Correctly judging and grasping the characteristics and trends of China's service trade development is of great significance to China's economic transformation and development under the new normal.After the Sino-US trade friction occurred,most of the existing researches focused on commodity trade,and the research on service trade was in small quantity and messy.In order to fully understand the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China,applying the previous research results to the new era,analyzing whether Sino-US trade friction has an impact on China's service trade will be beneficial to the development of service trade and economy in China.Firstly,this thesis focuses on the process of Sino-US trade friction and makes a statistical analysis of the scale and competitiveness of China's service trade,studies the current situation of China's service trade,and carries out a qualitative analysis of the friction's impact on China.Specifically,it includes the analysis of the total and component data of service trade,showing the overall scale and industrial structure changes of its development in recent years,and the analysis of the Lafay index and the cumulative Lafay index chart based on the PRODY index to measure the changes and direction of the comparative advantage of various sectors.Furthermore,through the econometric analysis of 45-country panel and China's time series,this thesis studies the factors that influence China's service trade and conducted qualitative analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China.It includes adding virtual variables to observe the sample changes before and after the friction points,and observing the heterogeneity of group samples of countries and sectors.This thesis recognizes that Sino-US trade friction will persist in many areas for a long time and will be difficult to decrease in the short term.Statistical analysis shows that the total scale and growth trend of China's service trade are good,but the industrial structure and regional distribution are uneven;the competitiveness of service trade is not strong;the comparative advantages of traditional services are gradually disappearing;the comparative advantages of emerging services are strengthened;and the technological content of service exports is increasing.After Sino-US trade friction,the comparative advantages of China's tourism,construction and insurance sectors fluctuate.Further empirical research finds that Sino-US trade friction has no negative impact on developed economies,and their service exports even benefit from it;however,service exports of emerging economies become more difficult.Generally speaking,Sino-US trade friction has no significant impact on China's service exports,but has a negative impact on service imports,although not significant.Specifically,at the sector level,Sino-US trade friction has no significant impact on imports and exports of emerging services in China,but after Sino-US trade friction China's economic scale has been greatly damaged.Sino-US trade friction has no significant impact on exports of traditional services and inhibits imports of traditional services.At present,Sino-US trade friction has no significant impact on China's service exports,but has a negative impact on service imports,especially traditional service imports,although not significant.As the Sino-US trade friction occurred recently,the impact may gradually deepen in the future.On the basis of the previous research,policy recommendations for the development of China's service trade in the context of Sino-US trade friction in the future will be proposed.