Research On The Influencing Factors And Impact Risk Of Short-term Cross-border Capital Flow In China

With the continuous development of information society and the birth of financial derivatives,globally,fewer and fewer restrictions on capital flows,especially with strong liquidity in the short term,highly leveraged cross-border capital deeply affect a country’s economic and financial policy.For emerging market economies,cross-border capital flows are a double-edged sword.Actively introduce and use of international capital to promote economic development,is a important measures to promote the global financial integration,cross-border capital especially short of cross-border capital flows and sudden reversal will cause severe impact on a country’s economy,and may even lead to currency and financial crisis,moreover can cause serious political,economic and social problems.The movement of cross-border capital flows has brought great challenges to the operation of our economy and the advancement of reform.This article studies the influencing factors and impacts of China’s short-term cross-border capital flows.As the degree of marketization in China continues to increase,short-term cross-border capital flows to China’s economic impact exists in various markets.This paper focuses on the selection of exchange rate markets,capital markets,interest rate markets,and real estate market to explore the influencing factors.Compared with the analysis of the related short-term cross-border capital flows in the previous literature,this paper briefly introduces the perspective of China’s long-term capital flow,in order to make the trend of influencing factors more obvious.After statistical analysis and trend analysis of the impacts between the factors,a sensitive and quantifiable factorwas selected to conduct an empirical analysis of the VAR model,draw conclusions and make recommendations,and look ahead.