Research On The Impact Of Bank Credit On Real Estate Prices

In 1998,the state council issued the notice on further deepening the reform of urban housing system and accelerating housing construction,which was the prelude of China's real estate market reform.In the 20 years after the reform,the development of the real estate industry has indeed played a great role in promoting the growth of the macro economy.However,the continuous growth rate of housing price far exceeds the growth rate of residents' income level.In the long run,social problems caused by high housing price will gradually become prominent,thus restricting the development of economy.In addition,the real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry.Both real estate development enterprises need to apply for loans from commercial Banks for project operation and ordinary residents for house purchase.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of bank credit on real estate prices.This paper first reviews the development history and current situation of China's real estate market and real estate credit,and intuitively shows the correlation between bank credit and the real estate market from the perspective of actual data.Secondly,the paper analyzes the influence of bank credit on real estate price from the perspective of theoretical model,conduction mechanism and pathway.Again,according to the theoretical analysis of selected the total amount of the national average real estate prices,real estate credit loans,real estate development enterprise,individual mortgage loan and five-year loan interest rate of monthly index data,vector autoregressive model(VAR)empirical analysis,the empirical results show that the scale of bank credit and credit interest rate is the granger cause of price changes,growth in bank lending would have a positive impact on prices,and loan interest rates rise will have a negative effect on prices.Then,this paper,based on the data of 35 large and medium cities panel regression analysis,to study the effect of different areas of real estate credit to real estate prices,the empirical results show that the eastern region of real estate price is affected by bank credit degree is low,at the same time,the east city real estate enterprise loan and impact strength of gap between individual mortgage loans than in the central and western regions,that is,the quotient of coefficient of loan for real estate enterprise and the coefficient of personal loan in the eastern region are larger than those in the central and western regions.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and Suggestions that Banks should optimize the credit scale and structure,government departments should take effective measures to promote the balance between supply and demand in the real estate market,encourage real estate enterprises to expand financing channels,and improve the coordination of policy regulation to regulate the real estate price.