Empirical Analysis Of The Effect Of Product Export Diversification On Total Factor Productivity Of China's Manufacturing Industry

In the rapid development of International Trade,China's foreign trade has achieved remarkable results,the scale of exports has been rising,the total export volume has increased from US$18.09 billion in 1980 to US$2,263,371 million in 2017,and the ranking jumped from 28 to the top.In the process of trade structure transformation,China constantly explores how to find new opportunities in the Global Value Chains,expand the types and quantities of export products,increase the technological content of export products,improving the level of Product Export Diversification,promote the Total Factor Productivity,and thus promote sustained and steady economic growth.This paper analyzes the China's Product Export Diversification from product structure and diversification index.In terms of export product structure,the structure of export products gradually changed and the level of vertical diversification improved.However,there are problems such as uneven distribution within the industry and excessive concentration of export products,the level of horizontal diversification has been reduced.In terms of export product diversification index,the HHI and THEIL were selected to measure the China's Product Export Diversification.The results show that the development of China's Product Export Diversification has gone through six stages.In addition,the analysis of the current situation of China's Total Factor Productivity shows that the only way to achieve sustained and steady economic growth is technological progress.In the case of capital formation close to the limit,it can only promote industrial upgrading and structural transformation through technological progress.In the empirical part,this paper uses the panel data of 28 manufacturing sub-sectors in the 2009-2016 National Economic Industry Classification(GB/T4754-2002),constructed an econometric model and use the GLS method to examine the effect of Product Export Diversification on Total Factor Productivity.The results show that the Product Export Diversification significantly promotes the Total Factor Productivity.Finally,according to the results of empirical analysis,put forward policy recommendations to improving the Product Export Diversification and Total Factor Productivity.