| The economic development gap between the north and the south in Jiangsu Province is growing,and is harmful to the sustainable development of Jiangsu's economy to a certain extent.Large cities such as Suzhou and Nanjing have over-concentrated resources through polarization effects,resulting in population expansion,traffic congestion,high housing prices,energy shortages and so on.On the other hand,some of the central cities in the northern Jiangsu region have insufficient capacity to drive,and it is difficult to exert trickling-down effect on the surrounding hinterland.Based on growth pole theory,this paper constructs a growth potential assessment system for Jiangsu Province,evaluates the actual development status of 57 cities in the Province,and builds a reasonable growth pole system to give full play to the growth poles of all levels to promote the economy and the north-south linkages of the Province.First,taking Jiangsu province as the research area,based on the comprehensive analysis of growth pole,metro areas,central city system and other related theoretical research and empirical research and the evaluation index system both at home and abroad,from the level of economic development innovation ability,traffie condition,soft environment four aspects,this paper sets up the growth potential evaluation index system in Jiangsu province,which are respectively using the method of maximum entropy,tin-index,urban gravity model and the production function to calculate the corresponding index,and to measure the growth potential of 57 cities in Jiangsu province.The results show that:(1)According to the cross-sectional data of2009,2011,2013 and 2016,innovation is concentrated in Suzhou,Xuzhou,Nanjing,Wuxi and a few other cities,and the first degree of urban innovation is on the decline,and the innovation difference between cities has a certain degree of robustness.(2)In 2016,the economic level of the cities in Jiangsu province was divided into three steps,with different characteristics in economic scale,economic structure and economic efficiency.(3)In 2016,the accessibility probability of 57 cities in Jiangsu province and Shanghai also showed a three-step differentiation,and the size distribution tended to be hierarchical diffusion.At the city scale,the road friction coefficient has obvious distance attenuation law.(4)From 2002 to 2016,the average misallocation of labor force in Jiangsu province showed a parabolic evolution,and 57 cities were located in four stages of evolution.Secondly,using ArcGIS software to visualize the economic development level,innovation capability,traffic conditions and soft environment of 57 cities in Jiangsu Province,the paper selects the city with obvious advantages as the first-level growth pole,and combines the growth potential evaluation system and the center of gravity model selection to select the second-level growth pole,and choose the key cities to undertake the gro,th of the pole based on the principle of transportation and administrative principles.Finally,the paper builds the growth pole system of Jiangsu Province:Nanjing,Suzhou,Xuzhou are the first growth pole of Jiangsu Province,Nantong,Yancheng,Wuxi,Changzhou and Huai'an are the second-level growth poles of Jiangsu Province.Zhenjiang,Yangzhou,Taizhou,Suqian,Lianyungang,Yixing,Changshu and Jiangyin are key cities for the growth of the extreme growth.Finally,this paper proposes cultivating measures according to different levels of growth poles:for the first-level growth poles,we should focus on improving urban innovation capability and economic level,and alleviate the polarization phenomenon in Jiangsu Province across the metropolitan area;for the second-level growth pole,according to the industry relative advantages or absolute advantages promote the division of labor between cities and increase the population agglomeration capacity of the second-tier growth pole cities to alleviate the problems of first-level growth pole population expansion,traffic congestion and high housing prices.For the key cities that undertake the growth of the growth pole,we should actively accept the trickle effect of the first and second growth poles,and gather and integrate the labor,capital,land and other elements of the surrounding hinterland to carry out concentrated development to solve the problems such as excessive economic dispersion and disorder of small towns in Jiangsu Province. |
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