Research On Carbon Emission Accounting And Energy-saving And Emission-reduction Strategy Of Low-carbon Construction Projects

Greenhouse gas?carbon dioxide?emissions have brought serious climate change problems to social and economic development.Therefore,low-carbon development,energy conservation and emission reduction are imperative.At present,coal accounts for up to 60%of the disposable energy in China,of which 80%is used for power generation.Coal-fired power plants are the main source of carbon dioxide emissions in China.China cannot change the composition of coal-based energy resources in a short period of time.It is not possible to reduce emissions by improving energy efficiency with the current technological development level,and the emission reduction cost of renewable energy projects is also very high.Carbon Capture and Storage?CCS?is a key technology to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the global low-carbon technology.For countries that mainly rely on traditional coal-fired power generation,CCS is an effective way to rapidly reduce Carbon emissions.According to the analysis of the international energy agency?IEA?,it is estimated that CCS technology can still reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by 12%by 2050^[1].Therefore,the development of CCS technology is highly valued by the national government.However,the investment in CCS technology is affected by many uncertain factors such as economy,policy and technology.In order to avoid the defect that traditional investment evaluation methods ignore the uncertain value of projects,this paper studies the investment decision of CCS in coal-fired power plants based on the real option method.The main research work in this paper is as follows:?1?Research on CCS investment decision based on policy uncertainty.Firstly,the investment characteristics of CCS technology investment are analyzed,and the uncertainty factors affecting CCS project investment are analyzed.Then,considering the four policy environments of non-subsidy policy,low-intensity policy,medium-intensity policy and high-intensity policy,policy variables such as carbon tax and clean electricity price are introduced to establish the real option evaluation model of CCS technology investment.Finally,the critical value of investment is obtained through mathematical derivation,and the impact of policy uncertainty on CCS technology investment is analyzed on the basis of solving the model.?2?Research on the two-stage investment decision of coal power plant CCS based on fuzzy real option.First,CCS is divided into two stages of demonstration and operation,and the advantages of applying fuzzy mathematical theory to real options are analyzed.Secondly,the paper introduces the fuzzy number and types to be used in this chapter,and constructs a two-stage fuzzy compound option model under the uncertainty of input cost and return.Finally,the influence of parameter variation on critical value,real option value and fuzzy option value is considered.