The Impacts Of Replacing Business Tax With VAT On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure Of Hubei Provice

Since the 18th National Congress,China's economy has slowly entered a new normal,and the economic growth rate has gradually declined,slowly entering the medium-to-high-speed growth trend.Under the new normal economy,the situation of high input,high consumption,high pollution and low efficiency faced by traditional industrial structure is more prominent.The proportion of emerging industries and high value-added industries in the overall economy is low,and the demand for industrial structure upgrading is already very high.urgent.As China is in the shift period of economic growth,the economic phenomenon of market failure is more prominent than other countries.The government can regulate the economy through its own"tangible hand".One of the most effective tools in the government's "tangible hand"policy is the tax policy.Through the adjustment of tax policies,the industrial structure will be transformed and upgraded as soon as possible.This is an important goal of the government's implementation of tax policy changes.Therefore,starting in 2012,the central government introduced the tax reform measures of "reform and increase",and successively pushed this reform across the country.The implementation of the"reform of the camp" has opened up the tax barrier between the secondary industry and the tertiary industry,making the flow of production factors between the secondary and tertiary industries more smooth,and more conducive to the secondary and tertiary industries.development of.This effect is achieved through the income and substitution effects of taxation policies,and these two effects are continuing to strengthen.Changes in taxation policies have strengthened the flow of factors between industries and promoted the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures.This effect can be verified by empirical tests.Therefore,this study uses a combination of general analysis and empirical analysis to examine the impact of tax policies on the upgrading of industrial structure.This paper takes Hubei tax policy,industrial structure and the relationship between the two as research objects.Through general analysis and empirical analysis,it demonstrates the impact of VAT tax revenue and business tax revenue on industrnal structure upgrading.The main structure of this paper is as follows:In the first part,based on the basic theory of economics,this paper defines the concept of industrial structure and industrial structure upgrading in economics,and explains the evaluation index of industrial structure upgrading;the second part,from From the perspective of macroeconomic impact,the tax policy analyzes the impact of tax revenue on industrial structure upgrading and reveals the transmission path of value-added tax and business tax.The third part analyzes the status of tax revenue and industrial structure upgrading in Hubei Province based on the data of Hubei Province,mainly using the GDP of the three industries,the total number of employees in the three industries,and the advanced indicators of industrial structure.The fourth part,through the establishment of vector autoregressive model,analyzes the internal relationship between value-added tax,business tax and industrial structure upgrade,and combines general analysis and empirical analysis to analyze the impact of tax policy on the upgrading of industrial structure in Hubei Province.Fifth,on the basis of the above analysis,combined with the current macroeconomic policies of China,it proposes policy recommendations for the upgrading of industrial structure in Hubei Province.Business tax and value-added tax have significant differences on the upgrading of industrial structure in Hubei Province.The implementation of the "reform of the camp" will better promote the rational development of the industrial structure of Hubei Province.First,the value-added tax has a lagging effect on the advanced industrial structure of Hubei Province.This lagging effect will promote the industrial structure to become more advanced.The lag period of the impact will only appear in the sixth period.Second,the business tax will be advanced to the industrial structure of Hubei Province.There is a lag effect,which will hinder the industrial structure from becoming advanced.The lag period of the impact will only appear in the seventh period.Third,it can be seen from the prediction error variance decomposition that the industrial structure is advanced at the beginning.And the impact of VAT,over time,the impact of VAT is dominant.