Study On Early Warning Of Commodity Housing Market In Harbin City Based On Spatial Analysis

As commodity prices continue to rise,many urban problems are exposed.The development of real estate is closely related to the sustained and steady development of the national economy and the living standards of urban residents,while commercial housing occupies a dominant position in real estate and leads the trend of real estate.The commodity housing market is similar to the development of the real estate industry.There are obvious cyclical fluctuations,and there are alternating patterns of rising and falling indicators.Irrational expectations lead to a sharp increase in the number of blind purchases and investments by consumers,leading to a situation in which it is difficult to control the sudden crisis that may be faced.Therefore,it is inevitable to strengthen the monitoring of the commodity housing market and effectively control the healthy development of the commodity housing market.Firstly,this study will innovate the geographically weighted regression model,propose an improved GWR regression algorithm to replace the global coefficient in the traditional GWR model for the quantile regression calculation,and use the geostatistical analysis tool of ArcGIS to fit the commodity housing price.Good spatial analysis based on the influence of location factors.The combination of the model and ArcGIS technology shows that the results are more accurate than the traditional OLS and GWR,and the idealized analysis of spatial differentiation research is realized.Through the combination of spatial correlation analysis,trend analysis and influencing factors analysis,it is found that the commodity housing prices in the main urban area of Harbin are obviously regional,showing the characteristics of multi-level centers.The peak of commodity housing prices is not reflected in the traditional On the CBD.The results are profoundly revealing the complex relationship between commodity housing prices and the influencing factors.Secondly,based on the rough set theory,the early warning of the fluctuation of the commodity housing market in Harbin is carried out.Determine the alert-find the source of the police-analyze the warning signs-the pre-alarm level,and finally propose countermeasures.In the selection of the early warning system index system,Harbin's own economic characteristics are combined,the early warning indicators of the commodity housing market are extracted,and a reasonable macro early warning model is established.When the police are analyzed and predicted,the forecasting part is combined with the cumulative method.The gray prediction and Markov prediction,the results of the multiple regression analysis were revised,and the revised prediction results were obtained.It is predicted that the commodity housing market in the main urban area of Harbin will be in a normal cold state in the next two years.Finally,based on spatial analysis and macro-warning,the policy recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of Harbin's commercial residential market are derived.