Research On The Spatial Correlation And Influencing Factors Of China's Provincial Total Factor Productivity

Under the background of structural adjustment and growth stabilization,China is experiencing a decline of growth rate and insufficient growth momentum.But from a regional perspective,China has made many efforts in promoting regional integration and marketization over the years,the connection of interregional development is getting closer,and the process of regional coordinated development is promoting.Accordingly,when studying China's current regional economy growth,the dynamic evolution of growth momentum of regional economy and interaction between different regions' economic growth are worthy for attention.Meanwhile,discussing the factors of promoting economic growth momentum will help to seek ideas for the promotion of regional economic growth.As a key indicator to measure the quality and capacity of economic growth,total factor productivity(TFP)can well reflect the ability of economic growth when studying the issues of regional economic growth.With the methods of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA)and Spatial Econometric,this paper takes the TFP of all the mainland provinces in China from 1990 to 2016 as research object,and discusses the spatial correlation characteristics and influence factors of them.Firstly,the TFP index of each province is calculated by using Malmquist-DEA method in this paper,and takes them as the objects and core variables of the empirical analysis,and then analyzes the evolution of them.Secondly,this paper analyzes the features of the space distribution,the spatial association of local and global areas.The temporal and spatial changes of the degree and type for the spatial correlation are discussed emphatically in this part.By using dynamic spatial autoregressive model,then this paper analyses the impacts of the initial condition of development,level of economic agglomeration,industrial structure,infrastructure level,human capital,innovation ability,degree of marketization,degree of government intervention and openness on TFP.The last part of this paper is the conclusions and suggestions.Conclusions below are draw from this paper:1.Regional economic growth in China is an interrelated and interactive process,which means economic growth in a region promotes or restricts its neighbors.And the degree of spatial association is rising.2.The spatial pattern of regional economy growth is getting reasonable,the gap of regional economic growth ability between eastern China and western and central China is narrowing,the areas with positive interaction effect are shifting to northern and western China,and the number of areas that with nagetive interaction effect is decreasing.3.The initial condition of development,human capital,degree of marketization,innovation ability and openness are helpful for the promotion of TFP,but the level of economic agglomeration and the degree of government intervention block it.Industrial structure and infrastructure level can not significantly improve TFP.Consequently,in making development policies of regional economy,governments at all levels should continue to promote the process of regional integration and strengthen the connection of regional growth.And they should improve the level of economic agglomeration and give full play to the external economy produced by industrial agglomeration.Meanwhile,they should expand the investment of the human capital,improve the ability and degree of regional innovation by adopting incentive policies to encourage innovation,reduce the degree of government intervention and stimulate the market dynamics by improving the proportion of private economy in national economy.In addition,they should promote the integration of infrastructure and production factors efficiently by planning regional infrastructure construction and layout reasonably,and they should improve the technological level and competitiveness of enterprises by increasing economic openness.