Research On Input Efficiency Of Agricultural Science And Technology Considering Lag Time

In the huge national economic system,agriculture,as the primary industry in our country,is the foundation of the national economy.Under the new situation of developing the socialist market economy,agriculture should always be put in the first place in economic work.In recent years,with the progress of science and technology,China is at an important stage of transformation to modern agriculture.China's agriculture has undergone tremendous changes.However,there is always a big gap between China and developed countries in agricultural development,especially the low level of science and technology restricts the development of China's agriculture.Science and technology are crucial to the development of modern agriculture.The driving force of agricultural development is continuous input in science and technology,which is an inevitable requirement of agricultural modernization.By increasing input in agricultural science and technology and optimizing the structure and function of input in agricultural science and technology,China's agricultural modernization can be effectively promoted.Therefore,evaluating the efficiency of China's agricultural science and technology input,evaluating and analyzing the content and efficiency of China's agricultural science and technology,and correctly understanding the state of China's agriculture can not only make a comprehensive judgment on the development level of agricultural science and technology in various provinces and cities,but also enable governments at all levels to formulate scientific,reasonable,practical and feasible plans for the development of agricultural modernization according to them.It is of practical significance to make a more reasonable allocation of scientific and technological resources in various regions,improve the use efficiency of scientific and technological resources,and accelerate the transformation of agriculture.In the process of economic development,there is a lag effect between input and output,that is,there is also a time lag between input and output,and the output of science and technology input will lag to a certain extent.Therefore,it is particularly important to quantify the lag time between input and output for the estimation of input-output efficiency.However,in the evaluation of actual agricultural input and output efficiency,the lag between the two is often ignored.Therefore,measuring the lag between agricultural science and technology input and output and combining it with DEA model to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural science and technology input more accurately is the focus of this paper.On the basis of existing research,this paper constructs an input-output index system to measure the efficiency of agricultural science and technology,uses the method of complex correlation coefficient to measure the lag time of agricultural science and technology output,calculates the actual value of agricultural science and technology output of each province(city,autonomous region)on the basis of the lag time,and then constructs a DEA model with lag factors.Then the DEA efficiency evaluation model of agricultural science and technology input is constructed and measured in turn based on the three perspectives formed by the direct output index of agricultural science and technology input,the indirect push output index dimension and the two dimensions based on the total output index dimension.In order to understand the development situation and trend of agricultural science and technology input efficiency in various provinces(cities,autonomous regions)in China,the agricultural science and technology input efficiency in 2007,2010 and 2013 are calculated respectively,and the static comparative analysis of agricultural science and technology input efficiency in 2007,2010 and 2013 is carried out.Then,based on grey prediction modeling technology,the development of agricultural science and technology input and output data is predicted.On the basis of the predicted data,the efficiency of agricultural science and technology input in 2017,2020 and 2023 is calculated and analyzed based on the three perspectives formed by the above two dimensions.Finally,this paper makes a longitudinal comparative analysis of the estimated efficiency of agricultural science and technology input in 2017,2020 and 2023 and the estimated efficiency of agricultural science and technology input in 2007,2010 and 2013 from the three perspectives,and concludes that the DEA efficiency of agricultural science and technology in China will show a downward trend with the change of time from the three perspectives,and the number of effective provinces(cities and autonomous regions)is continuously decreasing.However,from different perspectives,the emphasis points leading to the decline of comprehensive technical efficiency are different,and the scale efficiency has a stronger impact on the comprehensive efficiency.This paper puts forward some development ideas such as deeply analyzing the reasons leading to the non-DEA efficiency of agricultural science and technology,and rationally allocating agricultural science and technology resources.