The Asymmetric Influence Of Monetary Policy On Stock Prices

With the development of China's stock market,the impact of the stock market on the national economy and people's livelihood is increasing day by day,and the importance of the A-share market,which is called the" barometer" of the national economy,is becoming more and more obvious.People begin to pay more attention to the various factors and the degree of influence that affect the price of the stock market.As a macro-factor that has an important impact on the national economy,the relationship between monetary policy and the price of the stock market is self-evident.Therefore,it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study the impact of monetary policy on the price of the A-share market.This paper mainly solves two problems:1.Whether the impact of China's monetary policy on stock prices is asymmetric;2.The effect of China's monetary policy instruments on stock market regulation.Using the research method supplemented by empirical analysis,this paper selects three monetary policy tools:money supply,interest rate and deposit reserve ratio to study the impact on the stock market.The empirical part is divided into three stages.By establishing the VAR model of Markov system transformation,the paper studies the influence of money supply,interest rate and deposit reserve ratio on the Shanghai Composite Index.Through empirical analysis,the following conclusions are drawn:Monetary policy does have an impact on stock prices in different economic States and has asymmetric effects,and the effects of the three monetary policy instruments are also different.The specific regulatory effects are as follows:1.Monetary supply instruments have a strong regulatory effect on stock prices in bear markets,while the Shanghai Composite Index is little affected by changes in monetary supply in bull markets and stable economic periods;2.Interest rate instruments play a strong regulatory role in bull market,while in bear market and stable economy,interest rate instruments have little impact on stock prices in the short term.3.Deposit reserve instruments have no significant impact on stock prices in bear markets,but in bull markets and stable economic times,changes in deposit reserve ratio have a significant impact on stock prices in the short term.