Empirical Research On The Impact Of Money And Real Estate Bubble On Financial Risks

In recent years,China is facing the dual pressures of economic slowdown and RMB depreciation,but China's money supply rate has remained at a high level.At the same time,with the increase in the money supply,China's real estate prices have also shown a continuous upward trend.Housing prices in many places have far exceeded the affordability of residents.When the price rises above a reasonable level,it will breed a real estate bubble.Increase financial risk.At present,a considerable proportion of China's economic development is driven by the real estate industry,and its industry fluctuations have a huge impact on China's systemic financial risks.Based on this,this paper constructs a financial risk index evaluation system and uses principal component analysis to measure China's systemic financial risks for many years.It draws on Abraham's single factor model of real estate theory price,from the demand and supply factors affecting housing prices.Starting from the calculation of real estate theoretical price and measuring the level of real estate bubble in China;using SVAR and impulse response function to analyze the impact of money supply shock on financial risk;using the median variable test to empirically analyze the transmission effect of real estate bubble between money supply and financial risk.The results show that during the research period,the trend of China's systemic financial risk can be divided into five stages.At the current stage,the overall trend of risk is relatively stable,but the risk is V-shaped in various short-term time periods.The innovation of financial products,insufficient supervision and macroeconomic fluctuations are the main reasons for short-term risk fluctuations.In the measurement of the level of real estate bubble in China,the empirical results show that there is a certain real estate bubble in China,and it shows periodic changes with a period of 3-4 years.Among the many factors affecting the real estate bubble,land supply,income,cost,speculative psychological expectations and policy factors have a significant impact on the bubble.In the empirical analysis of the impact of money supply and real estate bubbles on financial risks,the results show that the money supply shock will reduce risks in the short term,and then the financial risks will gradually increase,but the growth rate will slow down.In the long run,the ultimate risk will increase.The results of the medianvariable test indicate that the real estate bubble plays a partial intermediary role between the money supply and the financial risk,that is,the change of the money supply can indirectly cause the change of financial risk by affecting the change of the real estate bubble.