Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Shanghai's Terms Of Trade Change From 2005 To 2017

Terms of trade of a country or region are important indicators of the development of foreign exchange interests.How to share more foreign trade interests and obtain favorable terms of trade is a matter of great concern to the political,business and academic circles of all countries.In China,most of these studies focus on terms of trade at the national level,while few on provincial or regional level.In this context,this paper takes Shanghai as an example to discuss the changes in terms of trade,the influencing factors and the effects of changes on wealth and welfare in Shanghai.In order to objectively investigate the specific changes of Shanghai's terms of trade,this paper will first calculate the income terms of trade index,price terms of trade index and factor terms of trade index by collecting the actual data of Shanghai from 2005 to 2017,and draw a conclusion: generally speaking,the terms of trade of Shanghai tend to deteriorate before 2009,but gradually improve after 2009.It has not yet reached the level of 2005,but the terms of trade of income and single factor terms of trade of manufactured goods have improved considerably after 2009.In order to further explore the nature of terms of trade fluctuation,firstly,In TOT is taken as dependent variable,In GDP,In RMB and In FDI are taken as independent variables to establish a model.By observing whether the data of INTOT and INFDI are unstable,we can analyze whether the explanatory variables affect Shanghai's terms of trade and price.Then,in order to study the welfare effect of the change of Shanghai's terms of trade,the real GDP will be adjusted by the terms of trade to measure the wealth level of Shanghai residents,in order to analyze the degree of change.Then,by using the WarP assumption that one consumer bundle is purchased at a price and the other is purchased at a price,we further analyze the direction of economic welfare change in Shanghai.Finally,we compare the direction of economic welfare change in Shanghai with its economic growth rate,and get the results and analyze whether there is impoverished growth in Shanghai.Finally,all the analysis results are summarized and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.