Evaluation Of Infrastructure Bot Project Based On Fuzzy Compound Real Option Model

With the rapid development of economy and the increasing demand for investment and financing,various new financing models are becoming more and more perfect.BOT mode is a representative mode of operation.It is usually initiated by government agencies and signed cooperation agreements with corresponding project companies to meet the financing needs of large-scale infrastructure projects.Such projects often have the characteristics of multiple stages and long periodicity.Therefore also USES the installment construction the way more,its construction risk and the management risk also subsequently expands.Therefore,fully identifying and defining the construction and operation risks in the investment process of such projects is the key to investment decision-making,while the traditional project investment decision-making method cannot comprehensively consider the risk investment characteristics and value characteristics of such projects.This article is on the construction of infrastructure BOT project investment decision-making risk decision-making as analysis object,in infrastructure BOT project under the condition of uncertain value composition mechanism as the specific research object,comprehensive low prediction accuracy of the infrastructure BOT project,parameter estimation and the characteristics of multi-stage uncertainties,identified in the process of project investment of compound real option characteristics and fuzzy characteristics.In this context,the Geske compound real option model is further selected,and the trapezoidal fuzzy mathematical theory is introduced to fuzzify the parameters such as the investment cost and expected cash flow of BOT projects in various stages.Finally through to the XY liang period of the construction of the sewage treatment plant project examples,the application of fuzzy compound option model are discussed,and the comparison and analysis of the traditional pricing theory points in such a high risk and high periodic shows limitations in project evaluation,which verify the effectiveness of the compound options thinking in the installment construction feasibility and superiority of infrastructure BOT project decisions.Based on the full consideration of the opportunity value of infrastructure BOT projects and the flexible value of investors'decision making,this paper,from the perspective of quantitative analysis,further promotes the application of the pricing and evaluation idea of such projects,making the project investment decision-making process more practical.At the same time,it makes up the limitation of the traditional project pricing model.We can find that through the study of this paper,fuzzy compound real option decision in high-risk,long cycle in value evaluation of the project more scientific,the compared to traditional methods,in full consideration of the uncertainty of the future market at the same time,more into the flexible management is an important factor,has certain theoretical significance and practical value.As a new decision-making idea,it provides a new evaluation method and theoretical tool for infrastructure BOT project investment,and also puts forward new ideas for the stable construction and development of the project.