The Value Evaluation Research Of Biomass Energy Project Based On Fuzzy Real Option

Energy is an important guarantee for National economic development of a country. To ensure energy security is the first strategic goal of a country, and advanced energy industry development level is the concentrated expression of a country's compre-hensive strength. Due to the rapid economic development, the demand for energy is increasing day by day in Hunan Province, and the contradiction between energy and environment is also growing. Coupled with the Leiyang City, Hunan Province, is defined as a resource exhausted city, so the demand for new energy is more urgent, resulting in a great transformation of the pressure. In order to break through the development, Leiyang City, as well as Hunan Province must change the traditional energy use and energy production mode. Exploiting biomass resources and producing clean energy is an inevitable choice. At the same time, the national industrial policy has significantly increased the support for the production and use of clean energy, and it's clear that all parts of the country should play a variety of forms of biomass energy product.This paper based on this background, this paper summarizes the characteristics of biomass energy projects firstly, including the option characteristics and fuzzy characteristics. Considering these characteristics, this paper argues that traditional decision method has limitations in evaluation of biomass energy projects, and the fuzzy real option method is more scientific. the fuzzy number theory and the traditional B-S model together, constructs the fuzzy real option pricing model. Finally, uses the briquette biomass fuel production project of Leiyang City meiaote science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. as an example and evaluates the value of the project, consider -ing the option characteristic of the project, and also combining the traditional real option pricing model and fuzzy theory, to contact the fuzzy real option pricing model. The purpose is to provide a new method for the evaluation of biomass energy invest- ment projects in order to facilitate decision makers in the uncertain and competitive environment, choosing the investment direction and the investment opportunity of the project correctly, and realizing the maximization of profit by optimizing the allocation of limited resources.Through the analysis of the fuzzy real option pricing model and the traditional NPV evaluation model and the evaluation results of the traditional real option model respectively, the conclusion considers that fuzzy real option model is most suitable for Leiyang City meiaote Technology Development Co., Ltd. to assessment of the value of briquette biomass fuel production project. The model can provide more scientific and reasonable decision basis for project decision makers.