The Impact Of Urban Housing Price Changes On Economic Convergence In The Yangtze River Delta Region

The Yangtze River Delta region is located at the sea entrance of the Yangtze River,with good location conditions and natural endowments.The area covers 26 cities and the city level is relatively complete.Over the years,the country has made the Yangtze River Delta region one of the growth poles of the Chinese economy,and has continuously introduced various policies to promote economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta region.The integration of the Yangtze River Delta region has now become one of the national strategies of our country.In recent years,the Yangtze River Delta region has been at the forefront of the government’s efforts to promote regional cooperation and the establishment of regional integration market.The economy has developed rapidly,the economic aggregate has increased,and the people’s income and welfare levels have increased.At the same time,the economic development level of the 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region is quite different.There is a certain gap between cities in terms of GDP and per capita GDP.Therefore,the economic differences in the Yangtze River Delta region and the reasons for their formation have always been an important issue.The discussion on the economic convergence and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta region has also been the focus of academic circles.According to the neoclassical economic growth theory and the new economic growth theory,the main factors affecting economic convergence are physical capital,labor and technological progress.Other factors related to economic growth(such as industrial structure,employment density,etc.)also play an important role in economic convergence.However,there are few studies on economic convergence from the perspective of housing prices.As a "barometer" of the national economy and an important part of the Chinese economy,the real estate market is closely related to many aspects of the economy and society,and its role in economic convergence cannot be ignored.Therefore,this paper attempts to analyze the impact of urban housing price changes on economic convergence in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of housing prices.On the basis of expounding the relevant theoretical basis and reviewing the literature review,this paper describes the current situation of economic and housing development in the Yangtze River Delta region during the period of 2001-2016.This paper measures the economic convergence of the Yangtze River Delta region,and analyzes the overall situation of housing prices and regional high differentiation.Further,this paper proposes that housing prices will affect economic convergence through labor flow,corporate choice and government policy,and clarifies the influencing mechanism of housing price on economic convergence.Based on the data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2016,the panel data model including housing price factor is constructed,and the method of variable intercept fixed effect model is used for regression analysis.In the process of analysis,the methods of stepwise substitution and comparative analysis are used to verify the strength and direction of the impact of housing prices on economic convergence.Based on theoretical analysis and empirical results,the following conclusions are drawn: Firstly,the economy in the Yangtze River Delta region is developing rapidly,but the housing price differentiation in the region is serious,and economic growth gap exists among cities.Secondly,during the period of 2001-2016,there is a certain degree of σ convergence in the Yangtze River Delta region.The coefficient of variation,the Gini coefficient and the Theil index are in a downward trend of fluctuation;there are obvious absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence,and the level of material capital,human capital and industrial structure plays a major role in promoting economic growth.Thirdly,on the whole,housing price changes have contributed to the economic convergence in the Yangtze River Delta region.However,when housing prices enter a higher level(starting from 2010),irrational high housing prices will curb the process of economic convergence.Based on the empirical results,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations: Firstly,in view of the different impacts of urban housing prices on economic convergence,the government should introduce targeted regulation policies for cities at different housing prices.Real estate regulation policies in high-price areas should be “one city,one policy” to avoid irrational rise in housing prices;while seizing the opportunity to promote economic growth,low-price areas should prevent the phenomenon of rising house prices.Secondly,no matter when,economic growth should not be overly dependent on the development of the real estate industry,but should promote long-term and healthy economic development through innovation and industrial upgrading.Finally,the government should scientifically design the performance appraisal system for local officials and improve the performance index system.