Research On Net Interest Margin Of Commercial Banks Based On Index Of Market Interest Rate

The marketization of interest rates has brought enormous opportunities and challenges to commercial banks,especially in the management of spreads in commercial banks.This paper comprehensively sorts out the development process of China's interest rate marketization,and uses the analytic hierarchy to calculate the interest rate marketization index.Based on the “market maker” model,qualitative analysis of the influencing factors of commercial bank net interest margin,research on the net interest management of commercial banks in China.The net effect fixed-effect static model and the first-order differential dynamic model are used to calculate the impact of various influencing factors on the net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks under the condition of interest rate marketization.On the basis of the static regression model,the different performance factors of different types of commercial banks' net interest margins are further explored in the process of interest rate marketization.In the dynamic net interest difference regression model,the first-order difference variable of the net interest margin is introduced,and the net interest margin of the previous period is considered to have an impact on the current spread.Finally,the VaR method is used to analyze the fluctuation of the net interest margin of commercial banks in the context of economic fluctuations,and provide empirical results for banks to respond to good net interest rate fluctuations when external environmental changes or internal adjustments.Finally,I try to put forward some suggestions on the basis of the above evidence,in order to provide new ideas for the spread management strategy of Chinese commercial banks.In the calculation of China's interest rate marketization index,it is found that from the perspective of marketization,2008-2011 is a process of slow and loose interest rate regulation in China,and the level of interest rate liberalization has been slower.Starting from 2012,with the launch of the People's Bank of China.In the round of interest rate marketization reform,the process of China's interest rate marketization has obviously accelerated,and the interest rate marketization index has also begun to increase rapidly.Through the static model of net interest margin,it is found that the net interest rate of commercial banks is mainly affected by the marketization index,and there is not a simple linear relationship between the two,but an inverted U-shaped relationship.The interest rate difference of commercial banks will be marketed with interest rates.The degree of deepening first tends to expand,and after reaching a peak,it begins to shrink.Total deposits,capital assets ratio,liquidity ratio,non-performing loan ratio and broad money M2 growth rate are positively correlated with net interest margin and net interest spread,while non-interest income ratio,cost-to-income ratio and other bank transformation indicators and net interest margin are presented.Negative correlation.Considering the time lag into the model,constructing the dynamic net interest difference impact model,the total amount of deposits,the proportion of non-interest income,the ratio of cost to income,the ratio of liquidity,the proportion of non-performing loans,and the growth rate of broad money only occur on the coefficient.Changes did not change the correlation,while the constant term index,the interest rate marketization index indicator,and the newly added first-order differential net interest margin index were different from the static regression model.In the dynamic regression model,the interest rate marketization index has a significant negative correlation with the net interest margin,indicating that in the dynamic model,as the interest rate marketization level rises,the net interest margin is continuously narrowing,which is also in line with the maturity stage.The development of China's commercial banks.The net interest margin indicator of the previous period is positively correlated with the net interest margin indicator of the current period,that is,the net interest margin of the previous period will promote the positive change of the net interest margin for the current period.Based on the dynamic net interest difference impact model,VaR analysis found that under the normal fluctuation of the economic environment,the probability of 99% future net interest margin is greater than 0.0205.There is a 95% probability greater than 0.0221.A 90% probability is greater than 0.0235.In general,in the future,the financial industry will have better net interest margin expectations without extreme economic fluctuations.Commercial banks generally have better profit expectations and have less chance of impact on the stability of the financial system.Finally,the paper summarizes the full text,based on the empirical results,proposes strategies and suggestions for cultivating high-quality financial markets,creating a sound financial environment,optimizing top-level design,building a strategic framework,and improving product structure and management tools to further improve the level of interest margin management.