Research On The Impact Of Interest Rate Marketization On The Net Profit Spread Of China's Commercial Banks

China's interest rate liberalization reform has gone through nearly 20 years from 1996 to 2015.Interest rate marketization reform,as a major reform of China in improving the financial system,brings both opportunities and challenges to commercial banks.The interest rate marketization reform has improved the autonomy of commercial banks' interest rate pricing,and at the same time,the competition among commercial banks has become more intense.In recent years,commercial banks have increasingly increased the development of intermediary business,intensified business innovation,and strived to carry out business reforms,but the deposit and loan business still occupies the core of the commercial banking business.The net interest spread of commercial banks is the most important way for commercial banks to obtain profits,and it also reflects the operational efficiency of commercial banks.The low net interest spread of commercial banks reflects the low social cost of economy and society.The low social cost leads to the efficient operation of economy and society,which is conducive to the maximization of social welfare.The high net interest spread of commercial banks reflects the high social cost of economy and society.It is not conducive to the efficient operation of the economy and society and the increase of social welfare.The interest rate marketization brings opportunities and challenges to commercial banks,and the net interest spread is the most fundamental and important way for commercial banks to obtain profits.Studying the impact of interest rate liberalization on the net interest spread of commercial banks is not only beneficial to commercial banks to improve management level,improve operational efficiency,obtain higher profit levels,but also has important practical and theoretical significance for social and economic development.In this paper,Maudos and Solis(2009)improved the model of the market maker model as the basis of this model,combined with the actual situation of China's interest rate marketization,further improved the model,and introduced the interest rate marketization into the model.Using this model as the empirical theoretical basis,the influencing factors not included in the mathematical model are included in the empirical measurement model,including the factors indicating the business level of the commercial bank itself and the macroeconomic environment.For the influencing factors of interest rate marketization,this paper constructs the interest rate marketization index through the analytic hierarchy process,and then quantifies it into the empirical measurement model.The sample data of this paper mainly selects 27 domestic commercial banks(5 large state-owned commercial banks,12 joint-stock commercial banks,10 city commercial banks)for the empirical analysis of the data from 2005 to 2015,in the empirical Through the comprehensive consideration of the choice of random effect panel model to study the impact of interest rate marketization on the net interest spread of commercial banks,and the factors affecting the net interest spread of commercial banks in the "gradual" process of interest rate marketization.After the complete sample regression,this paper will carry out regression analysis on the three-component group samples of large state-owned commercial banks,joint-stock commercial banks and urban commercial banks.Through the regression analysis of the three types of commercial banks,the impact of interest rate liberalization on the net interest spread of the three types of commercial banks,joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks is compared and analyzed in the process of interest rate marketization reform.The factors affecting the net interest spread of different types of commercial banks are different,so that different policy recommendations can be given to different types of commercial banks while drawing conclusions.The research results show that the interest rate marketization has a significant impact on the net interest spread of commercial banks with a nonlinear inverted U-shaped.In the early stage of interest rate marketization reform,due to the increase in the autonomy of interest rate pricing of commercial banks,commercial banks will achieve this by using the method of expanding net interest margin for the purpose of obtaining more profits.With the continuous advancement of interest rate marketization reform,the net interest spread will widen to the peak.Then,due to the intensified competition among commercial banks,commercial banks have absorbed deposits and loans by narrowing net interest spreads and reducing profits.The result is net interest spread.Gradually shrink.The possible innovations in this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,in the theoretical research,the interest rate marketization is introduced into the market maker model.Based on the model of Maudos and Solis(2009),the interest rate marketization factor is added,and the variable representing the marketization of interest rate is added to the theoretical model.In terms of the factors affecting the net interest spread,this paper constructs the interest rate marketization index as a measure of interest rate marketization through the analytic hierarchy process.The deposit and loan benchmark interest rate is not directly used as a measure indicator.Second,in the empirical research,the fixed effect model is different in most other literatures.This paper adopts the random effects model for empirical analysis.Reasons include:First,the intra-group estimator(FEestimator)is not very satisfactory,because using only intra-group differences will make the estimates not very efficient and estimate the coefficients of the non-time-varying explanatory variables;In principle,when the cross-section individuals are randomly drawn from a large population,if you want to analyze the population with results,you should use a random effects model.This paper considers that the choice of commercial banks as individual cross-sections is random,and the analysis of commercial banks as a sample of 27 commercial banks as a sample,so the random effects model is adopted.Also,correct the possible inter-group heteroscedasticity and intra-group autocorrelation by obtaining robust standard errors.And in the group empirical study,because the sample data of large state-owned commercial banks and city commercial banks are "long panel" data,this paper uses iterative FGLS estimation method to conduct empirical analysis to correct the possible inter-group heteroscedasticity of"long panel".Autocorrelation within the group.