Study On The Spillover Effect Of Systemic Financial Risk In China

With the development of financial liberalization and globalization,the instability of the financial system has been significantly enhanced,and worldwide financial crises have occurred frequently.Systemic financial risks endanger the stability of the financial system and even undermine the development and stability of the real economy.Once the systemic financial risks accumulate to a certain extent,they will erupt into a financial crisis.After the global financial crisis in 2008,regulators realized that they should not only strengthen the supervision of individual financial institutions,but also pay attention to the risk spillover effects between financial institutions and avoid the outbreak of systemic financial risks.Therefore,it establishes an econometric model for the risk spillover effects of financial institutions,accurately measures systemic financial risks,analyzes the contribution of individual institutions' systemic risks,identifies systemically important financial institutions,and captures the dynamics of individual financial institutions' spillover effects in systemic risk accumulation.The path is the key to the subsequent control of the accumulation of systemic financial risks and the prevention of financial crisis.The research content of the full text is mainly divided into three parts.The first part mainly introduces the related concepts of systemic financial risk,and understands its characteristics,evolution mechanism and reasons for its formation.The second chapter analyzes in detail the external factors of the formation of systemic financial risks in China,and reveals the impact of financial imbalances on systemic financial risks in China's current economic development.The second part is to construct the systemic financial risk spillover formula based on the CoVaR model theory and the quantile regression method.After measuring the risk spillover effect value,analyze the financial institutions from the static and dynamic perspectives.The contribution of risk and the analysis of the risk spillover effect on the systematic financial risk tracking and early warning based on financial extreme events.The third part is mainly about the supervision and policy recommendations on preventing systematic financial risks from the empirical conclusions.Through the above research,the paper has obtained the following conclusions: First,the overall systemic financial risk in China is in a relatively stable range.In the future,the probability of a financial crisis is small,but systemic financial risks are still accumulating.China's current high proportion of investment causes imbalances in economic structure,large fluctuations in economic cycles,systemic financial risk accumulation and exposure,frequent fluctuations in asset prices,and serious financial imbalances caused by risk exposure and real estate bubbles,leading to systemic finance.Risks accumulate and there are signs of manifestation.Second,China's banking financial institutions have the strongest systemic financial spillover effects,and have a high contribution to systemic financial risks.They are in a systemically important position.State-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks are important targets for systemic financial risk prevention.At the same time,the choice of regulatory objects should also fully examine its relevance in the financial system and its contribution to the overall financial risk in financial extremes.