A Research On China’s Trade Potential For Exporting Agricultural Products Along The "Belt And Road"

With the deepening of the “One Belt,One Road” initiative,China’s economic development is facing new opportunities and challenges,which has a particularly important impact on the agricultural economy.It is of great significance to explore the trade potential of agricultural products in various countries along the “Belt and Road”,It can provide effective reference information for the rational planning,and thus can obtain better trade benefits and Improve the level of opening up。The research on the trade potential of agricultural products tends to measure the trade relationship through trade index,or use the gravity model to analyze the factors affecting trade flow.This paper intends to combine the exponential analysis method with the gravity model.Based on the theory of trade,this paper analyzes the agricultural trade data of 65 countries.Firstly this paper identifies the competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural products in China along with the “Belt and Road” countries by constructing the Agricultural Products Display Comparative Advantage Index(RCA),and sorts out the trade relations between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road”;And then,this paper constructs an extended trade gravity model,empirically analyzes the influencing factors of China’s agricultural product trade potential along the “Belt and Road” countries.The results of the study are as follows: the exchange rate and FTA have a significant positive impact on trade flows,and the distance is not significant.The per capita GDP difference and the agricultural added value account for the proportion of GDP is significantly negative.Based on the gravitational model,the predicted value T’ of agricultural trade volume between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” is further estimated.Through the ratio of the actual value of trade volume T to the predicted value T’,the trade potential of China’s agricultural products with the “Belt and Road” countries is measured.Trade competition,trade complementarity and trade potential play an irreplaceable role in the distribution pattern of agricultural products.The assessment of trade potential of countries based on the combination of index measurement and expanded trade potential model is more scientific and reasonable,and has important theoretical significance for the study of China’s agricultural product trade potential under the “Belt and Road” initiative.