| This paper is a study focusing on the guarantee chain risk in Zhejiang Province,combining the general descriptive method and case-study method.Having analyzed the data of credit-extended companies from one major financial institution and incorporated field investigation,this paper identifies the industries and areas that suffer the most serious guarantee chain risk,and picks out three typical cases:two from the industry of textile and chemical fibers in Shaoxing area,one from the industry of harbor,storage and oil trade in Zhoushan area.The analysis concentrates on the entire transmission process of risk both between groups of companies and between one group of companies and ones that do not belong to it.This paper draws conclusions with respect to both the cause and solution of the risk.Guarantee chain risk is formed under a collaborative force of internal accounting risks and external economic recession,and is further proliferated through different companies via risk carriers.What induces risks includes but is not limited to over-indebtedness,over-investment,withdrawal of credit from the banks,deterioration of the company's own operations and financial data fraud.Its solution requires the collaboration of economic subjects from all three levels of companies,financial institutions and government.Typical ways to disassemble guarantee chain include faster ones such as preserving assets through litigation and slower ones such as restructuring.The analysis as is presented in this paper draws extensively from case-study and carries an emphasis on practice;it deduces the way to prevent and solve the guarantee chain risk from its very causes.Spatially,it can be modified and applied to the gathering areas of private enterprises in other provinces and cities to discover whether it already has a risk prototype;temporally,it can be used as a preventive reference for subsequent rounds of financial crises,which may help us avoid unnecessary losses as early as possible. |
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