Reserch On Inner Risk Control Of Credit Guarantee Institute For Small And Medium-Sized Enterprise

As credit guarantee is one of the internationally recognized high-risk business, small and medium enterprises(SME) of credit guarantee institutes only effectively control guarantee risks that can be continued development. How to control the risks for SME’s Guarantee institutes is the aim of this research. The risks that guarantee institutes face are from many kinds of external uncertainties but also from intrinsic factors; however, intrinsic risks can be avoided by guarantee institutes’subjective efforts. Therefore, the research of the intrinsic risks and risk control methods of the credit guarantee institutes will help it apply effective risk control.Based on the exsiting theoretical reseach, it analyzes the causes of intrinsic risks of gaurantee institutes, which the main causes composed by the defect of the basic gaurantee model, the vulnerability of the gaurantee institutes risk control system and the moral behaviour of gaurantee personnel. Thus, it defines the theoretical framework of this study, namely the three proposed risk control methods according to the intrinsic risks.Risk-feature analysis is the fundation of building risk control method. In our rearch,it systematically analyzes the features of intrinsic risks of gaurantee institutes. Also, it states the dramatical differences among SME credit gaurantee risk, commercial bank credit risk and insurance agencies insurance risk. It builds a Poisson process model to characterize the statistical features of security risk. Empirical results show that the feature of security risk distribution is "peak-fat-tail", which matches the general financial risk normal distribution.For the basic gaurantee model leading the gaurantee institutes to the high-risk and low-return situation, the innovation of the gaurantee model is the objective requirement of effective security risk control. It is the mechanism of promoting gaurantee institutes risk control through gaurantee model innovation. Firstly, it can increase the overall return of security institutes; secondly, it can avoid security risks; thirdly, it can conbin and disperse risks. And it compares the features and the application conditions of innovative gaurantee models under several different types of risk control mechanisms. Also, it presents a new comprehensive and innovative gaurantee model, which is verified by the theoretical and practice cases to the feasibility of effective control of gaurantee institutes’security risks.The high-risk of gaurantee institutes’s operation conflicts with the vulnerable risk control organization system. We analyzes the status of China’s SME credit guarantee institutes’risk control organization system and respectively discusses the structure features and application conditions of process-oriented risk control organization system and modular-stuctured risk control organization system. Moreover, using the mudular degree of risk control organization system as the ajustable variables, stucture model is builded to the risk control capability of gaurantee institutes. The model empirical results show that precess-oriented risk control organizations are preminent in terms of the capability of controlling operational risks, while modular-stuctured risk control organizations are outstanding on the capability of controlling credit risk of secured enterprises and market risk.Gaurantee personnel’s moral risk is one of the important tasks of the risk control for the gaurantee institutes. The key to control staff’s moral risk is to design effective incentive and restraint mechanism. In the first place, it applies dynamic game model to analyze the agency relationship of gaurantee institutes. Furthermore, Holmstorm-Milgrom model is introduced to discuss the incentive compatibility mechanism against moral risk of gaurantee staff. Also, it is stated that increasing the revenue sharing ratio is one of the effective incentive measures to stimulate gaurantee personnel. The staff’s incentive constraint is multi-tiered, in addition to the consideration and arrangement of return, but also from the incentive constraint mechanism such as gaurantee personnel’s reputation/corperate culture, human rights, etc. to prevent and restrict.Risk early warning is an important part of risk control. We build a random-effect logistic risk early warning model. Through the empirical analysis of early warning of the guarantee institutes risks and single guarantee project risks, the results show that the constructed model has better fittings. In addition, it compares the fixed-effect logistic model, which the empirical results indicate that random-effect logistic model has better early warning effect on the warning veracity and dynamic reflect.