A Study On The Influencing Factors Of Non-Financial Enterprise Leverage

China's leverage rate has experienced two stages of rising and falling,but the magnitude of leverage addition is significantly greater than that of leverage reduction.In general,Leverage ratio shows an upward trend.Among the economic sector,the trend of leveraging in non-financial sector is the most significant,and the speed of increase leverage is the fastest.At the Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2015,the CPC Central Committee and the State Council set five important tasks of?capacity reduction?de-stocking?deleveraging?cost reduction?improving underdeveloped areas?.The core task of deleveraging is to reduce leverage actively and steadily,so as to alleviate the pressure of systemic financial risks and promote the economy sustained and healthy development.The government work report of 2017points out that active and stable deleveraging is an important task in government work.On the premise of controlling the total leverage ratio,we should take reducing the leverage ratio of enterprises as the top priority,strengthen the financial leverage constraint of enterprises,especially state-owned enterprises,and gradually reduce the debt of enterprises to a reasonable level.With the further implementation of a series of deleveraging measures,China's macro-leverage rate decreased for the first time in2018.The effect of deleverage of non-financial was the most obvious among them with a total decrease of 4.6 percentage points in the whole year.However,China's economy is still existence structural problems.In addition under the background of new downward pressure,deleverage should not be carried out in a general way,should analyze the causes and structural characteristics of non-financial enterprise sector leverage,grasp the overall thinking and focus of de-leverage,and carry out relevant measures to reduce leverage structurally on the basis of a comprehensive assessment of the leverage ratio of various sectors of the national economy.This paper on the basis of combing and studying the research results at domestic and foreign,compares the differences of leverage ratio of non-financial listed companies in regions,industries and scales,and tries to find some commonalities and characteristics of leverage ratio of non-financial enterpries in China,and then deeply analyses the causes.At the same time,referring to the previous research results,selected 634 non-financial listed companies.Taking the panel time series data from2003 to 2017 as samples,this paper further explores the main factors affecting leverage ratio from the internal level and external environment of enterprises by using econometric models.Firstly,adopt FA-SVM model and weighted geometric average combination forecasting model based on L₁ to predict the trend of long-term average leverage rate and short-term leverage rate of sample enterprises.Then,by establishing a fixed effect model,the macro and micro factors affecting the trend of short-term leverage rate and long-term leverage rate of enterprises are analyzed in depth,and the measures to effectively promote the de-leverage of non-financial enterprises are put forward.The relevant policy recommendations have positive practical significance.Through the vertical and horizontal comparative analysis of the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China and empirical research on its influencing factors,this paper predicts the future trend,and draws the following conclusions.Firstly,the ratio of debt to GDP of non-financial enterprises at macro level is rising fast and the hidden risk is bigger,while at micro level,the periodic fluctuation and structural differentiation of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises coexist;secondly,the counter-cyclical of leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises,too single financing channel,over-reliance on indirect financing,less direct financing,equity,debt and other equity financing channels are issued.The main reasons are the high leverage ratio in some heavy assets industries and the low preference for bank credit risk.Thirdly,the long-term leverage ratio of non-financial listed companies has continued to decline,but the downward trend has slowed down.The short-term leverage ratio of non-financial listed companies has first decreased and then increased slightly.Fourthly,the leverage ratio of non-financial listed companies is affected by different internal and external factors,among which the short-term leverage ratio is mainly related to the size of the long-term leverage ratio is not only significantly related to the size of the enterprise,the operation status and other self-operating indicators,but also significantly affected by external macroeconomic and credit policies.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper argues that the expanding scale of corporate debt makes interest expenditure a burden for the development of enterprises.The rising leverage rate seriously damages the vitality and competitiveness of enterprises.In order to prevent risks,it is necessary to actively and steadily de-leverage.