| Central Asia is composed of five countries: Kazakhstan,Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.It is rich in mineral resources and adjacent to the northwestern provinces of China.It is the central location of the Belt and Road and is also a must for the Asia-Europe continent.The strategic channel has been a region where all countries in the world have been cooperating since ancient times.It is of great significance to study the issues of import and export trade relations and trade influence factors between China and the five Central Asian countries.This study can also provide reference for the analysis of China’s import and export trade with other neighboring countries.First of all,this paper introduces the background and significance of the research,research ideas and methods,the theory of international trade,and the development of trade between China and the five Central Asian countries.The analysis of the trade relation and the potential influencing factors of trade between China and the five Central Asian countries are one by one.They are output,income,population,economic center of gravity,logistics,exchange rate,economic strength,degree of information,and trade organization policy.Then,this paper introduces the competition analysis method,the complementary analysis method and the gravity model based on the panel data of China and Central Asia.This paper uses competitive analysis and complementarity analysis to study trade relations,and uses the trade gravitational model based on panel data to find out the significant influencing factors of import and export trade,and calculate the impact coefficient.Next,this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the above model and draws conclusions.Analysis of the competitive and complementary changes in China’s countries over the past 23 years.The factors affecting China’s import trade from the five Central Asian countries are: China’s GDP: 1.026,Central Asian countries’ GDP: 0.839,The economic center of gravity of China and Central Asian countries:-6.004,the market value of Chinese listed companies:-0.502,the use of mobile phones per 100 people in Central Asian countries: 0.251,the number of economic and trade organizations in China and Central Asia:-0.923.The factors influencing China’s export trade to the five Central Asian countries are: China’s GDP: 0.951,the GDP of Central Asian countries: 0.312,The economic center of gravity of China and Central Asian countries:-5.199,China’s total population:-23.951,The total population of Central Asian countries:-0.463,China’s railway transportation freight turnover: 1.100,the use of mobile phones per 100 people in Central Asian:0.428.Finally,the paper summarizes the research results and puts forward suggestions for national macro-control and follow-up research. |
