Research On Sino-U.S.Trade Surplus

With the development of China-U.S. Trade, Sino-U.S. trade surplus has expanded since 1992 when it appeared firstly. At present, the problem of Sino-US Trade Surplus has been the main obstacle of China-U.S. relationship.In this paper, the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. trade surplus would be studied based on the aspect of exchange rate. The definite steps will be illustrated as follows:Firstly, with comprehensive comparison between the historical evolution of RMB exchange rate system and development of the basic situation of China-US trade, the time would be divided into two periods : from 1994 to 2004 and from Jun.2005 to Dec.2008, Export Model, Import Model and Surplus Model would be built according to"Tow-Country"model theory , Johansen cointegration analysis would be used to draw the long-run equilibrium relationship with the RMB exchange rate, China's economic growth, U.S. economic growth and U.S. trade surplus. As a results, among the three factors , U.S. economic growth is the first significant impact, RMB exchange rate is the second significant impact, China's economic growth is the last significant impact.Secondly, in order to explain how U.S. economic growth make impact on Sino-U.S. trade surplus substantially, Sino-U.S. trade commodity structure would be analysis based on SITC, the substantial reasons of Sino-U.S. trade surplus is that U.S. trade policy in the Sino-US trade does not play the comparative advantages of high-tech exports due to restrictions on high-tech exports to China.Thirdly, the paper was completed at the time of global finance crisis, in order to study the impact of the RMB exchange rate against the Sino-U.S. trade surplus at the present background, Granger causality test would be used to analysis and arrive the conclusion that a significant positive correlation exited between Sino-US trade surplus with RMB exchange rate.Lastly, suggestions of reliving Sino-U.S. trade surplus and measures of RMB appreciation would be arrived according to the final conclusions of empirical analysis and theoretical analysis.