Research On Housing Debt And Household Consumption

Since the implementation of housing commercialization reform in 1998,the housing problem has been the focus of attention of residents,the government and the community.In the 2019 Central Economic Work Conference,it was emphasized that "we should build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of real estate,improve the housing market system and housing security system".Among them,the development of the real estate market can not be separated from the support of the housing credit policy,but also promotes the development of the housing credit market.In recent years,with the rising of domestic housing prices,the scale of residents’ housing debt continues to expand,and its proportion in consumer credit has remained at a relatively high level.Housing debt has become the main part of household debt in China.As an important economic decision-making of the family,the debt purchase may have an impact on household consumption and savings behavior.However,the domestic literature on the relationship between housing debt and household consumption is less,and the empirical results are also controversial.In view of this,this paper explores the relationship between housing debt and household consumption,and tries to explore its impact mechanism.Based on the data of China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)in 2010,2012,2014 and 2016,this paper uses a stochastic effect model to analyze whether housing debt affects household consumption and how it affects household consumption.Then,the data samples are divided into urban,rural and non-agricultural households,and agricultural households to examine the impact of housing debt on household consumption.Secondly,the multiple difference method is used to analyze the difference of household consumption before and after housing debt.On this basis,this paper attempts to explore the possible impact mechanism of housing debt on household consumption from three perspectives: purchase time,liquidity constraints and housing wealth effects.Finally,according to the empirical results,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations to guide residents to choose housing debt rationally in order to effectively stimulate household consumption.The results show that:(1)Housing debt has a significant stimulating effect on household consumption.Families get financial support through debt behavior,reduce the liquidity constraints of families,and produce housing wealth effect,therebypromoting household consumption.At the same time,the impact of housing debt on household consumption expenditure is different.Housing liabilities mainly promote food,household equipment and daily necessities,transportation and communications,residential expenditure,but have no significant impact on clothing,shoes and hats,cultural,educational and entertainment expenditure and medical and health expenditure.(2)Whether urban households,non-farm households,rural households or agricultural households,housing debt has a significant positive impact on household consumption.However,the consumption effect of housing debt is more obvious for rural households.(3)Use the multiple difference method to examine the impact of housing debt on household consumption.The results show that households show significant consumption differences before and after housing debt,and housing debt has a positive effect on household consumption,which is supported by the above conclusions.(4)From three perspectives of purchase time,liquidity constraints and wealth effects of housing,this paper tries to analyze the mechanism of housing debt affecting household consumption.Firstly,the earlier the debt purchase time is,the greater the role of promoting household consumption;conversely,the later the debt purchase time is,the smaller the role of promoting household consumption.Secondly,moderate mortgage-to-income ratio plays a significant role in promoting household consumption,but too high mortgage-to-income ratio will inhibit the growth of household consumption,so mortgage-to-income ratio has a significant non-linear impact on household consumption.Thirdly,housing has obvious wealth effect on both households with and without mortgage.Families buy houses in debt,so that the wealth effect of housing assets can be brought into play,and then promote household consumption.