| The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the 2018 Central Economic Work Conference have mainly involved two aspects in the deployment of financial work: one is to enhance the ability of financial services to the real economy;the other is to deepen exchange rate and interest rate reform,and to improve the dual pillars of monetary policy and macroprudential policy.Regulatory framework.For the current economic situation and economic work,the government has made demands to promote the healthy development of credit,stock market,bond market,foreign exchange market and property market.With the rapid development of China’s capital market and the changes in the total amount and structure of financial assets,the link between the real economy and monetary policy and the stability of asset prices and the stability of the financial system has become increasingly close.The fluctuations in stock prices and housing prices have produced huge influences.In the formulation of monetary policy,should the fluctuation of asset prices be taken into consideration? How does monetary policy react to asset price volatility and let it work? Through the combination of theory and empirical evidence,this paper mainly studies the asset price transmission mechanism of monetary policy.First of all,in terms of theoretical methods,the relevant theory of money and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy are sorted out,which lays a theoretical foundation for further analysis of this paper.On the empirical side,we first summarize the evolution of China’s monetary policy,the development of the capital market and the real estate market,and establish a SVAR model after a general analysis between them.The model’s macroeconomic analysis framework includes monetary policy mediation variables,asset price variables and real economic variables,and uses unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response function,and variance analysis.The empirical analysis of the asset price transmission effect of monetary policy shows that the main conclusions are:This paper studies the asset price transmission mechanism of monetary policy.On the theoretical front,it sorts out the relevant theory of money and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.On the empirical side,we first summarize the evolution of China’s monetary policy,the development of the capital market and the real estate market,and establish a SVAR model after a general analysis between them.The model’s macroeconomic analysis framework includes monetary policy mediation variables,asset price variables and real economic variables,through unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response function,variance decomposition and other econometric methods.An empirical analysis of the asset price transmission effect of monetary policy leads to the following conclusions:Second,in terms of the monetary policy’s stock price transmission mechanism,the Granger test indicates that the stock price is exogenous to monetary policy.In addition,the impact of stock price changes on investment and output is not obvious,indicating that the investment effect of the stock is limited.In summary,this paper believes that the effect of stock price on monetary policy transmission is not obvious,that is,the transmission channel of monetary policy in the capital market is not smooth.Third,in terms of the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy,changes in interest rates and money supply will cause changes in house prices,and changes in house prices will affect changes in investment,output,and price levels.It shows that house prices have an investment effect and can affect the level of inflation,which is also in line with the experience of high correlation between the real estate industry and the upstream and downstream industry chains.In short,this paper believes that China’s real estate prices have a certain monetary policy transmission effect.At the end of the article,the policy recommendations for the conclusions are proposed.Continue to steadily promote interest rate marketization;continuously enrich monetary policy tools,coordinate the use of innovative monetary policy tools;deepen financial reforms and improve capital market structure;central bank’s monetary policy should consider real estate factors and pay attention to the role of house prices in the transmission of monetary policy. |
