Research On The Transmission Effect Of China’s Monetary Policy To Real Estate Price

Real estate industry as an important industry to support China’s economic and social,it has the characteristics of long industrial chain,high industry correlation,wide range of characteristics.In recent years,the new normal and supply side structural reform of the economic situation,the real estate market pressure and increased risk.Study on the relationship between monetary policy and real estate prices,economic law between the monetary policy and the real estate market,so as to provide reference for the interpretation of economic phenomena behind the law and develop in order to maintain the real estate market is stable and healthy development and policy significance.This paper analyzes the transmission effect of China’s monetary policy on real estate price from two aspects of theory and demonstration.First of all,it introduces the definition and the concrete of monetary policy,and briefly discusses the theory of exogenous endogeneity,neutral non neutrality and asymmetric effect.Summarize the main channel of monetary policy in four aspects and the development process of China’s monetary policy in the past thirty years.Secondly,the money supply and demand market and the four sector commodity market based on an equilibrium model containing,housing prices,the amount of base money,the market interest rate,inflation,credit amount,exchange rate,import and export,government expenditure and taxation is established,the qualitative analysis of the influence of variables on prices in different economic times.Based on the monthly data in the past ten years,the economic period is divided into high speed,high speed and low speed,which is divided into three zones.Nonlinear MSVAR model.It is better to identify the area,duration,and transition probability of the sample,and reflect the efficiency of several policy variables in the middle and long term housing prices in different periods.Finally,according to the development of the real estate market,the author puts forward different policy recommendations and combinations to provide guidance and practical support for government decision-making.Research conclusions show:(1)in the past ten years,China’s economic situation can be clearly divided into the period of the three zones: high speed,suitable speed,low speed.The three phase of the real estate prices in the lag of the two phase of the role of the direction and the degree of change,reflecting the different periods of monetary policy transmission mechanism and effectiveness have a structural change.(2)There are some differences between the effectiveness of various policy tools and the impact on real estate prices.In the economic speed,the regulation effects of money supply on the price of the good,and the changes of the market interest rate will cause large fluctuations in house prices in a short time;the stage of rapid economic development,money supply and prices are related,the regulation effect is weak,and the interest rate policy can adjust the real price better.In the low or declining economic period,monetary and interest rate policies have less moderating effects on real estate prices,while the credit balance will have a better long-term boost to property prices.Changes in the real exchange rate have little effect on house prices,only in the medium and long term during recessions.