Research On The Impact Of Infrastructure Investment Efficiency On China Across The “Middle-income Trap”

With the Chinese economic entering a new stage,its economic growth is slowing down.At the same time,it is also facing a series of economic and social problems.The "middle-income trap" has also become a hot topic of the society.Scholars have studied whether China will fall into the "middle-income trap" and how to get out of the trap.The "middle-income trap" has become an inevitable challenge in the development of China.Some scholars have pointed out that improving the quality and efficiency of the economy is an effective way to overcome the trap in China,and that infrastructure plays an important role in the economic breakthrough.Under the background of global economic integration,the interconnection and intercommunication of infrastructure has become a priority construction area in the "One Belt and One Road" strategy proposed by Chinese government.The investment efficiency of infrastructure is shouldering the important task of economic development.On the basis of summarizing the scholars at home and abroad,this paper makes an empirical study on whether China will fall into the " middle-income trap".According to the characteristics of the countries in the trap,we select the relevant variables from multiple perspectives to construct the Bayesian discriminant method,and compare with the countries across the group and into the trap group to determine whether China has the possibility of falling into the trap in 2010-2016,since it entered the middle income stage.Furthermore,the investment efficiency of infrastructure in Chinese provinces is studied by DEA-Malmquist method.Finally,on the basis of the former two empirical,the infrastructure efficiency is introduced into the model as a core explanatory variable.Taking into account the spatial effect of China’s economic development,this paper adds space variables and builds a spatial econometric model to carry out relevant empirical research,and according to the empirical results,the dual fixed model of space lag effect is finally selected,to verify the Chinese infrastructure investment efficiency on whether China’s economic development has a positive effect,that is,whether it has a positive effect on China’s leapfrogging of the "middle-income trap."The empirical results show that:(1)China has the possibility of falling into the "upper middle income trap";(2)the investment efficiency of China’s infrastructure is generally low and there are regional differences;(3)Chinese economic development has significant agglomeration characteristics,that is,there is a space effect,and according to the selected type of spatial lag fixed effect model in the analysis,the growth coefficient of infrastructure investment efficiency on the economy is significantly positive,indicating It has a significant promotion effect on economic growth.It is demonstrated that the improvement of investment efficiency in infrastructure facilities has a positive impact on the challenge of medium-upper-trapping at the present stage in China.