The Impact Of Bilateral Investment In The "Belt And Road" Countries On The Status Of Global Value Chains

With the deepening and refinement of the global value chain division of labor,international production integration has made the links between countries increasingly close.The flow of production factors with capital as a carrier has pushed economic globalization to a new stage of development.This paper takes the countries along the “Belt and Road” as an example to construct a bilateral investment network,and selects 16 countries as samples to test and analyze the impact of bilateral investment network indicators on the upgrading of the global value chain of manufacturing,and then proposes relevant policy recommendations.Overall,the density of bilateral investment networks is on the rise.The structure of the investment network is a gradual evolution process with self-stability.The core-edge structure analysis further proves the self-stability of the bilateral investment network.The decrease in the number of subgroups within the bilateral investment network from 2003 to 2012 indicates that the links between countries along the line have become closer.From the indicators of network characteristics,the degree centrality,intermediate centrality,and point intensity nuclear density map are right-biased,and the heterogeneous primary nuclear density is left-biased,indicating that the investment partners of large countries are more dispersed and tend to establish bilateral investment relationships with more countries.This paper estimates the global value chain position index of manufacturing industry in 16 countries along the WIOD from 2003 to 2012.It analyzes the impact of bilateral investment network characteristics on the division of labor in the global value chain of manufacturing industry,and from the perspective of different technical levels of the manufacturing industry.A heterogeneity analysis was performed.The results show that the intensity of the point significantly promotes the rise of the global value chain of the manufacturing industry,but the degree of centrality and the intermediary centrality have no significant impact on it.From the perspective of different technical levels,the intermediary centrality has a negative impact on the upgrade of the global value chain of low-tech manufacturing.The intensity of the point promotes the rise of the global value chain of high-tech manufacturing,while the centrality,point strength and degree center Degree has no significant impact on low-and medium-tech manufacturing.From the perspective of different global value chain positions,when the global value chain position is relatively low,countries along the “Belt and Road” will expand the scope of bilateral investment and increase the investment intensity,which is conducive to the improvement of the value chain position.As the position increases,its promotion effect gradually decreases,but the promotion effect of linkage strength is greater than the intermediary centrality.When the quantile level is 50%,the promotion effect of investment intensity also disappears.At about 90% of the quantile level,investment breadth and investment intensity play a role in the value chain position again.At this time,the impact of investment breadth becomes negative,but it will inhibit the value chain from rising.Based on the above theoretical research and empirical analysis,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations for the impact of bilateral investment on the global value chain of manufacturing in a country: fostering high-quality factors and enhancing international competitiveness;effectively raising income levels and crossing the “middle income trap”;The value chain promotes the upgrading of the value chain;strengthens financial support,realizes financial financing;optimizes the institutional environment and promotes investment facilitation.