Research On The Trade Effect Of China's Direct Investment In Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

In 2017,with the first time of negative growth for China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI),it increased oppositely to countries alongside "Belt and Road"(B&R),with 31.5%growth to $20 billion compared to last year.In terms of international trade,China's import and export volume to v has also increased for the first time since 2015.With the intensified scrutiny of China's foreign investment projects by some western countries for ideological reasons and the increase of trade protectionism measures against China,China needs to expand its international investment and trade by B&R platform,which is of great significance for breaking through the strategic blockade of western countries and ensuring the stable operation of China's economy.According to the existing literature and research results,OFDI may have a creative or substitution effect on trade.Therefore,the purpose of this paper is to study the trade effects of China's OFDI among countries alongside B&R,and explore its relevant factors that influences.Meanwhile,it helps government guide enterprises on the optimal location of investment according to the current situation.In addition,there are differences of trade effects among different investment motives.So the article may be helpful for investors make reasonable decisions on industry and all stages of investment.After the analysis of the current situation as well as the empirical analysis,following conclusions are made:1.The condition of China OFDI and trade in the B&R countries is more concentrated in location and industry.2.Empirical analysis finds that China's OFDI in the B&R countries has a positive effect on import and export,especially on exports.3.Factors like GDP and population have influences on the trade effect of OFDI.Among them,GDP,population,science and technology as well as political stability play roles in boosting the trade.In contrast,energy promote import but have a negative influence on export.Cost on transportation between the two countries has a substitution role in imports and exports.4.The trade effects vary from different investment motives.Among them,resource-seeking investment promotes import,the creation effect of stock is greater than that of flow,with longer duration.Technology-seeking investment boosts import,and the creation effect of flow is greater than that of stock which also lags behind stock.Efficiency-seeking and market-seeking investment have the positive effects on import and export respectively.Based on the conclusions,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable development of China's OFDI and international trade:1.Optimize the location layout of investment and implement diversified investment strategy.2.Continue supporting and increasing OFDI and strengthen macro-strategic guidance.3.Deepen cooperation among countries and improve the efficiency of investment.4.Plan the project reasonably and maximize investment benefits.