Analysis Of Kunming Real Estate Market Based On Data Mining

At present,China's real estate market is in the stage of monetization reform of housing distribution and the rapid development of urban real estate market and macrocontrol.This stage is characterized by rapid development of real estate market,accompanied by many problems.After China entered the new normal in 2014,the economic environment began to improve.The breakthrough of the strategy of "one belt and one road" and the bridgehead strategy of Yunnan had ushered Kunming in the opportunity of the development of the real estate market.In this context,taking Kunming real estate market as an example,this paper explores the historical development law of Kunming real estate supply market and demand market,grasps the current situation of the real estate market,studies the unbalanced relationship between supply and demand,and predicts the future market development trend of Kunming.The main body of this paper is divided into four parts: supply analysis,demand analysis,balance analysis of supply and demand,prediction.The first part is the analysis of Kunming real estate market supply.In the part of supply analysis,firstly,it introduces the idea of the algorithm of collecting supply data and the details of filling missing values with regression method and statistical method.This paper uses the network crawler technology to collect the data of the largest real estate network trading platform in China as the supply data of the whole city.For the missing values in the collected data,by studying the distribution law of the indicators containing missing values,we use variance analysis,linear regression method and median filling method to complete the missing values.Then,using observation method,this paper studies the development history and current situation of Kunming real estate supply market from three aspects: total supply,regional distribution and structural differences.In the structural difference analysis module,Kmeans clustering method is used to analyze the different types of commercial housing supply.There are five conclusions from supply analysis.Firstly,the supply of commercial housing in Kunming is affected by economic and policy factors,the growth and reduction of the number of commercial housing are synchronized with the change of economic forms,and the guidance of policy is lagging behind.Second,Kunming is currently in a period of rapid development of commercial housing supply,and the real estate market in Kunming is warming up from 2013 to 2018.In the period of 2019,the supply rate of real estate market in Kunming declined.Thirdly,there are regional differences in the supply of commercial housing in the real estate market of Kunming.The supply of commercial housing is mainly concentrated in the main urban areas of Kunming,and the supply market of real estate in Chenggong and Anning districts is accelerating to rise.Fourthly,there are structural differences in the supply of commercial housing in the real estate market of Kunming,with housing as the main supply.In Wuhua District and Panlong District,the supply of medium-sized housing is the main type,while in Guandu District,Xishan District and Anning District,the supply of small-sized and medium-sized housing is the main type,while in Chenggong District,the supply of large-sized commercial housing is mainly concentrated in Guandu District and Xishan District.Fifthly,there are price differences in the supply of commercial housing in the real estate market of Kunming City.The second part is the real estate market demand analysis of Kunming.In the part of demand analysis,firstly,according to the research experience of some scholars,the indicators reflecting the real estate market demand in Kunming are selected from the population level and the economic level,and the indicators are statistically described,and the time series law of the indicators is explored to lay the foundation for prediction.Then,using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the indicators at the population level and the economic level,we construct the indicators describing the size of demand capacity and the speed of demand growth.Finally,we observe the time series of demand score index and demand growth index,and summarize the demand development law and current situation of Kunming real estate market.There are two conclusions from the demand analysis.First,by the end of 2017,Kunming is in a period of rising demand,which is slower.Secondly,there are regional differences in the real estate market demand in Kunming.The third part is the analysis of the balance between supply and demand in Kunming's real estate market.In the part of supply-demand balance analysis,we construct the accommodation population index reflecting the macro-supply capacity from the supply data,select the total population index reflecting the macro-demand capacity from the demand data,and establish the supply-demand balance analysis model.By studying the index of supply-demand balance,the conclusion is drawn that by the end of 2017,the degree of supply-demand imbalance in Kunming real estate market is gradually decreasing with the growth of the year.The fourth part is the prediction of the future development of Kunming real estate market.In the forecasting part,according to the characteristics of demand indicators,the correlation analysis between indicators is carried out,and the conclusion is that there is a highly positive correlation between demand indicators and years.The forecasting methods are divided into two kinds: linear regression forecasting and artificial neural network forecasting.For the demand indicators that are highly correlated with the year award,the 2019 index value of the linear regression prediction index is used.On this basis,the multi-perceptron model of the artificial neural network is used to predict the average price of commercial housing in Kunming in 2019.The forecasting part draws four conclusions.Firstly,the supply rate of commercial housing in Kunming will decrease in 2019.Secondly,the average price of commercial housing in Kunming will rise in 2019,which will lead to the decline of effective demand in the future real estate market of Kunming.Thirdly,Xishan District and Chenggong District of Kunming City will reach the balance of supply and demand from 2018,and the continued high-speed supply of commercial housing in 2019 will lead to the oversupply of supply and demand.Fourthly,there is a contradiction between the high supply of commercial housing and the decline of demand in Kunming.