Research On The Sovereign Debt Risk Of The Five Central Asian Countries Under The Background Of "One Belt One Road"

The Central Asia lies in the center of the Eurasia.The area is an important hub of the Silk Road Economic Belt.In recent years,with the advocation of the The Belt and Road Initiative,trade and investment between China and the area are developing rapidly.In 2017,China is the largest business partner of Uzbekistan,Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan,and the second largest business partner of Kazakstan.Besides,China is the largest capital source country of Tajikistan and the fourth major capital source country of Kazakstan.Under the influence of the fall of the oil price and the recession of the Russian economy,the Central Asia suffered a defeit in their current account in their foreign exchange and trade.To stabilize the economy,the Central Asia intervene in currency markets,which increase their foreign debt greatly.The ratio of foreign debt to GDP of Kazakstan and Kyrgyzstan has exceeded the international criterium of 60% and the ratio of the financial deficit to GDP has been very close to or evevn exceeded 3%,which means thhat the foreign debt has beyond one country' ability,that is to say,they can't pay their debt on time.For Tajikistan,the ratio of debt to GDP is below 60%,but it's wery close to 40%,which is stated for it by IMF.Besides,the ratio of the financial deficit to GDP of Tajikistan is very close to 3%.Under this background,I will access the sovereign debt risks of the five central Asian countries by analyzing the economic performance,the scale of sovereign debt,the market assessment of the the sovereign debt risk and the impacts of changes in sovereign debt risks on Chinese economy.And in the last part of the paper,I will put forward policy recommendations on how China should respond to the sovereign debt crisis of the five Central Asian countries.