| The sovereign debt crisis, as a peculiar manifestation of the financial crisis, occursfrequently. The debt crisis of Europe, in particular causes huge impacts not only on thecrisis countries but also in the economic, financial, social and political fields worldwide,which results in the weak recovery of the world economy. As globalization advances, thedebt crisis of Europe is apt to make negative impacts on the other countries and regions,which forces every country to reflect and reform the current mode of economic growth,the distribution method of wealth, the life style of the people, and in the long run it willexert subtle effect on and even change the structure of the world economy. At present, theresearches about the debt crisis of Europe mainly focus on a particular aspect of a certaincountry or a certain crisis, and most of the researches are about the sovereign debt crisisoccurred before the21st century, so it is difficult to reflect the new law of the Europeandebt crisis occurred after the21st century. Based on a longitudinal study about thesovereign debt crisis occurred after the1980s, this dissertation extracts the new featuresof sovereign debt crisis occurred in the early21st century and also makes a comparativestudy on the sovereign debt crises of Iceland, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italyrespectively, then expands a system analysis about every country from such angles as thecauses, the formation mechanism, the conduction mechanism, the impact and the rescueof sovereign debt crisis, and finally summarizes the new features and new laws of thecurrent European debt crisis. On this basis, this dissertation designs a series ofcountermeasures to further improve the system of early warning, prevention and rescueto the sovereign debt crisis.The dissertation holds that the main constraints of the convert from the sovereign debt tothe sovereign debt crisis are caused by the following factors of crisis country: theimbalance of economic structure, the improperly used of debt, the irrational size andstructure of debt. Only by investing their debt to improve the competitiveness of theirproducts and services can debtor countries probably avoid the sovereign debt crises.In early21st century, with the development of globalization, the sovereign debt crisis spreads rapidly and occurs routinely and chronically with the trend of transmitting to thedeveloped countries. The crisis countries, most are highly welfare and aging countries,exist the irrational industrial structure and the self-induced effects of investors’ negativeexpectations increase, which easily induce other new features of the secondary crisis.The direct causes of European debt crisis are the degradation of sovereign credit rating orthe default of sovereign debt. The Internal reasons of European debt crisis are asfollowing: the originally irrational economic structure of crisis country, the unreasonabledebt structure, the budget that can not be reduced by government, mal-matching betweenthe fiscal policy and the monetary policy in the Euro area, the long-term pro-cycleeconomic policy, too high level of social welfare and the loopholes in financial regulation.The external causes of European debt crisis are mainly as following: the impact ofinternational financial crisis, the promoting of speculators and the asymmetry in the Euroarea. The underlying causes of European debt crisis are mainly as following: thefinanciers’ excessive greed led by the culture of extreme individualism respected incapitalist countries, the promoting of American investment bank and credit ratingagencies, the moral hazard of expansionary fiscal policy chosen by the member countriesin Euro area.All kinds of causes are intertwined and interacted to constitute the mechanisms offormation and conduction of European sovereign debt crisis. The formation mechanismsof sovereign debt crisis includes: the currency crisis, the impact of Black Swan event,over-development of finance, financialization of real estate, moral hazard, competitionamong political parties. The Euro area does not meet the standard of optimum currencyarea. The conduction mechanism of European sovereign debt crisis is accomplishedmainly through six channels: creditor channel, banking channels, real economy channel,trade channel, asset price channel and psychological expectation channel.The impacts of European debt crisis to crisis countries are mainly embodied in a seriousnegative effects on the banking, asset prices, the prices of financial products, the rate ofinflation, the real economy and state power and reputation; At the meantime, crisis also provides valuable opportunities for the crisis countries to boost export, extrude assetsprice bubble, reflect on their own excessive higher welfare policy and in the end to revivethe real economy and manufacturing. The effects of European debt crisis to the Euro areaare quickly spread to the “sandwich countries” in European and worse,“core countries”were weakened in terms of economic strength due to reducing the financial position ofthe Euro currency and exposing the deep-seated problems of the Euro area, so thatinvestors look dim about its prospects. As for Britain and America, the crisis hasdeepened its European debt losses and risk exposure, caused the investment withdrawalfrom Europe, and boosted the dollar and U.S. financial hegemony. As for our country, thecrisis exerts a lot of impacts on the economic growth mode which used to be relied ondomestic demand, resulting in bigger financial risks due to the withdrawal of rapid influxof international hot money, therefore, foreign exchange reserves shrink, at last ourmacroeconomic policy faces a dilemma in an imported inflation which has a negativeimpact on overseas loans. The impacts of crisis on the global are as following: the globalfinancial market turmoil escalated, resulting flood of global liquidity, increase the tradefriction of social contradictions between countries in the world.This dissertation divides aid policies to debt crisis in Europe into three stages, First,short-term international institutions financed Crisis Government to solve the problem ofthe lacking liquidity; second，the government implemented in the mid-term fiscalconsolidation policy；third，in order to enhance the ability to payback， CrisisGovernment did long-term economic restructuring. Among them, long-term economicstructural adjustment is the key to the success of rescue. Three stages of aid policies tocrisis countries and the effects of comparative studies suggested the priorities of thecountries out of the current round of European debt crisis. Relief aspects and measures toinject liquidity of the crisis countries have been taken to strengthen financialco-ordination of Member States. However, the Euro area is more focused on the creationof European Financial Stability Mechanism Fund, the issuance of Euro-denominated debt,and improvements of labor productivity. The EU tends to strengthen fiscal and financialregulation, to reduce the negative impact of the credit rating agencies. In this dissertation,fiscal consolidation and economic recovery of countries in crisis should be coordinated to match the long-term economic structural adjustment and external aid in order to expandthe financing channels of the European financial stability mechanism and establish aEuropean Monetary Fund exiting mechanism, ultimately establish a European economicgovernment to improve the rescue effect.European debt crisis has a reference for the world and for China. Its global insight is tobreak the monopoly status of the international credit rating agencies and to maintain theeconomic strength matching the level of benefits. Meanwhile the world should constructa sovereign debt crisis prevention, early warning and relief mechanism, improve theinternational financial regulatory system, and avoid excess liquidity and reform of theinternational monetary system dominated by the US dollar. The enlightenment in Chinais that we should strive to improve the level of debt management, macroeconomicmanagement, international financial field and the right to speak, foreign exchangereserves, the level of management and financial regulatory standards. Based on theinherent law of the sovereign debt crisis, this dissertation designs an early warningsystem (Sovereign Debt Early Warning Index，SDEWI),which can effectively predict theprobability of sovereign debt crisis in China. Measures taken in this dissertation canprevent the sovereign debt crisis and maintain its sovereign debt sustainability as well asrationally, all in all to improve the standard of debt management in China.Finally, this dissertation analyzes five possible development paths in the European debtcrisis and predicts the global economy and finance in the future. The outlook includes:the fundamental changes of global economy and finance cased by the sovereign debtcrisis in Europe, which may spread economic and political crises to emerging countries.Or global trade friction may deteriorate and investors may be classified into twoextremes: the conservative and the radical, respectively. |
PDF Full Text Request