A Financial Risk Early-W Arning Based On Manufacturing Listed Companies

The continuous growth and more intense market competition of China’s capital have brought development opportunities to the manufacturing industry.At the same time,it has also brought challenges.As the number of listed companies that have been specially treated due to financial problems has increased year by year,the financial crisis has been increasingly affected.In recent years,the number of listed companies in China’s manufacturing industry has grown rapidly.As of June 2014,there were 1,524 listed companies in China’s manufacturing industry.As a pillar industry in China,manufacturing has played an important role in stimulating economic growth and promoting industrial transformation.Therefore,this paper selects appropriate financial indicators,constructs a financial indicator system,establishes a special financial crisis warning model for listed companies in the manufacturing industry.The model can help to timely monitor the financial abnormalities of listed companies,provide management with decision-making basis,promote listed companies and stabilize the market.The research content of this paper is mainly divided into five parts: The first part is the introduction,which systematically expounds the research background,research significance,literature review of domestic and foreign research,introduction of research ideas and innovation points.The second part is to determine the definition criteria of the financial crisis and the selection of research samples,and to describe the financial status of listed companies in terms of business status,profitability and development capability.The third part is to construct the financial crisis index system;use the factor analysis to extract the financial indicators,and obtain the comprehensive scores of the listed companies,and rank them according to the scores;and based on the comprehensive scores of the listed companies,use the cluster analysis to classify the financial risk of listed companies to different levels.At the same time make comparison between the classification results and samples.The fourth part is to establish a Logistic financial crisis early warning model based on the financial data of 48 sample companies,and test the accuracy of the model to ensure that the model has higher prediction accuracy which based on the test set constituted by 6 new listed manufacturing companies.The fifth part is the research conclusions and suggestions.Through the analysis and research on the financial crisis of listed companies in manufacturing,this paper draws the following conclusions: Non-financial indicators are indispensable for predicting whether listed companies will fall into financial crisis;income growth factors,the fixed asset factor and the stock factor are important factors in determining whether a listed company in manufacturing industry will fall into a financial crisis;the financial crisis of a listed company can be predicted through a financial early warning system.According to the conclusions and the problems existing in the current manufacturing listed companies,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to provide some reference for the development of listed companies in the manufacturing industry.Finally,the shortcomings in the research process are pointed out.The innovation of this paper is the selection of research samples.In the current research,when the sample is selected,the industry is generally not divided,and the differences brought by the industry are neglected.To compensate for this limitation and reduce the bias caused by industry factors,this paper bases on the manufacturing industry to select the research sample.The financial risk warning model established in this paper can avoid deviations caused by industry factors and improve the accuracy of financial early warning models.The establishment of the financial crisis early warning model not only has reference value for the financial security of listed companies,but also is extremely beneficial to the stable development of the economic market.Establishing a financial crisis early warning model specifically for the manufacturing industry,and forming a professional financial early warning mechanism can discover the potential financial crisis of the company,reduce the losses of listed companies,and ensure the healthy development of listed companies.This is also an important component of the healthy development of the market.