| As one of the most important agricultural products of soybean,the price of soybean meal affects the pricing of agricultural products,and has always been the focus of attention from all walks of life.Before the last century,China’s soybean were mainly exported,but after 1990 s,China’s soybean gradually changed to import.The export of the three countries,such as the United States,Brazil and Argentina,has become the main force to restrict the export of Chinese soybean.With the gradual transformation of China from soybean exporter to soybean importer,the pricing power of Chinese soybean meal has been severely impacted.Although China has huge soybean imports,it does not allow China to grasp the pricing power of soybean meal,but is subject to other importing countries.The lack of the pricing power of Chinese soybean meal not only affects the development of China’s soybean and related industry chain,but also has a serious impact on the whole agricultural system in China.In order to study whether the supply and demand factors of international soybean have an impact on the price of soybean meal in China,we must determine whether the pricing power of Chinese soybean is subject to other countries in the world.First,the fluctuation of the soybean meal market in China is determined,which proves that the soybean meal market in China is effective.Secondly,the cointegration relationship between the price of soybean meal and the price of soybean was analyzed.Finally,according to the characteristics of data,we choose GARCHMIDAS model to build mixing data and conduct qualitative analysis.It is concluded that international soybean supply and demand factors have a long-term impact on China’s soybean meal futures market.Through the analysis of this effect,the long-term relationship between different types of international soybean supply and demand factors is studied.Finally,some suggestions are made for the protection of the price of soybean meal and the improvement of the futures market in China. |
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