Research On Supply Chain Response Synergy Based On Qualitative Simulation Of Group Behavior

Yunnan has been growing and using tea for more than 1,700 years.It is the oldest tea area in China,the origin of the actual tea tree and has a very rich variety of tea trees and resources.In the nearly decade,the state of Pu'er Tea industry is always changing.In 2015,Pu'er Tea suffered a severe situation gradually after it has kept the good situation for three years.Tea companies encounter failures and there are few customers in the tea market.This phenomenon has larger associated with the unreasonable tea supply chain layout.Tea farmers' interests are not guaranteed.They have applied more pesticides for the harvest.Tea traders have been charging a lot of money in the supply chain,they focus on the taste of the tea but ignore the quality of the tea.Information asymmetry,conflict of interest and other issues gradually become the obstacle for tea supply chain to achieve rapid response coordination.A supply chain consisting of multiple supply chain members is a complex system.Under the influence of the internal environment and external environment,each member has its own group behavior characteristics.The interaction of members leads to changes in group behavior.With the passage of time,these actions will gradually tend to be stable in order to adapt to the environment of the supply chain.Group behavior change is more ambiguous,incomplete and qualitative.The definition of many variables is difficult to describe in a quantitative way.Therefore,the qualitative method is used to simulate the group behavior among enterprise members in the supply chain to select the most conducive factors to the synergy of supply chain reaction.It can further enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the supply chain.This paper firstly clarifies the research background and significance,and analyzes the development process of reactive supply chain and supply chain synergy in recent years.The research results of several classical theoretical methods of qualitative simulation are summarized.Secondly,this paper introduces the basic theory of supply chain reaction coordination,group behavior and qualitative simulation method,and emphatically introduces the transformation rules of qualitative variables and the simulation process of the QSIM algorithm of Kuipers.Then,the present situation of the supply chain of the Dayi Pu'er tea is analyzed,and the internal factors and external factors that influence the development of the supply chain are given.Based on the theory of the method of simulation,the group behavior of the tea supply chain of the Dayi Pu'er tea is analyzed qualitatively and the simulation results are discussed and the countermeasures are given.The simulation results of QSIM algorithm are not sufficient.Therefore,the integrated QSIM algorithm and the causal inference method are used to simulate the group behavior of the tea supply chain of Dayi Pu'er tea,and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the two simulation results.Finally,the analysis conclusion is discussed and the relevant opinions are put forward.