The Application Of Combination Forecasting DCF Model In The Value Evaluation Of Logistics Enterprises

As the main artery of economic and social development,the logistics industry is developing and growing with economic development,and major logistics companies have gradually attracted the attention of all parties.The logistics industry is closely related to the daily production and life of the public,and is facing huge development opportunities and development challenges under the rapid growth of distribution demand.At present,as an important part of China’s express delivery industry,private express delivery,through the barbaric development stage,private express has undertaken most of the express delivery service business in the market,logistics network construction and channel laying is more and more perfect,the industry has entered the era of "leading competition",logistics began to provide comprehensive logistics services transformation,the overall transition from traditional labor-intensive to technology-intensive,the industry pattern is gradually clear.At present,the value of using DCF model to logistics enterprises is affected by factors that are subjective in the evaluation of professionals and not objective enough in future cash flow forecasting.This paper selects SF Holding as a case company,applies the portfolio forecasting DCF model to evaluate the enterprise value,strives to eliminate the influence of various subjective factors,and obtains objective evaluation results through the objective combination forecasting model to serve market entities.Based on the development characteristics of express delivery industry,this paper uses the two-stage discounted free cash flow model to predict the free cash flow of enterprises by season and avoid the influence of human factors,and obtains the evaluation results on this basis.Firstly,the existing research at home and abroad is summarized and integrated,and the theoretical foundation is laid.Secondly,the gray prediction model and ARIMA model are introduced into the first stage free cash flow forecast,which makes the forecast results more reasonable and objective.Finally,the coefficient of variation method is used to give different weights to the results of the two prediction models,so that the objectivity of the combined predictive model is further guaranteed.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:The first is to use the combined forecasting DCF model to greatly improve the accuracy and objectivity of free cash flow forecasting of logistics enterprises.By introducing the ARIMA model that predicts the future series value based on the relationship of the observation values generated by the existing historical data,and the gray prediction model that predicts its future development trend according to the law formed by the original data,the subjective factors are basically avoided,and the objectivity and accuracy of the future cash flow forecast are guaranteed.Applicability has also been further verified.Second,the current capital market is optimistic about the development of logistics enterprises.After the evaluation of the combined forecast DCF model,the market value of the case enterprise is higher than the appraisal value,which highlights the investor’s confidence in the development of logistics enterprises.Although all walks of life have suffered the impact of the epidemic,the operation of the national society under the epidemic is inseparable from the support of logistics,and the distribution and deployment of daily necessities and medical resources are inseparable from the smooth and effective progress of logistics.In addition,with the advancement of a new round of infrastructure construction,transportation hardware facilities such as airports,highways,and railways have been continuously improved,which has also laid the foundation for the development of the logistics industry.Finally,in the long run,the impact of the new crown epidemic on social and economic development and other factors will eventually be overcome,and the trend of transforming the economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development in the future will inevitably lead to the further healthy growth of the animal flow industry.