A Study On The Characteristics And Influence Factors Of Economic Fluctuations In BRICS

Since the first official meeting of four leaders of Brazil,Russia,India and China in 2009,the cooperation in various fields among BRICS grew more and more deeply.Based on common economic interests and complementary economic structures,the BRICS have pioneered this new model of cooperation that not only breaks through the international economic system dominated by a handful of developed countries(G7),but also ripped out of the important practice of "South-South cooperation".The BRICS,accounting for four of world's top ten economies,was once considered the bellwethers of emerging and developing countries.However,after experiencing the financial crisis,the economic development of the BRICS countries has also appeared in various issues.For example,The rapid growth of China's economy was unsustainable,Brazil and India were caught in severe inflation,and the GDP growth rate of Russia fell sharply or even negative,etc.Therefore,whether BRICS can continue to lead the development of emerging countries has begun to be questioned.Admittedly,due to the international common shocks,shocks of other countries or domestic idiosyncratic shocks,the economy of every country in BRICS was impacted and brought about different degree of fluctuations,which will have great influence on maintaining and advancing the economic cooperation within the BRICS countries.Consequently say,it is of great significance to explore the changes in the economic fluctuations of the BRICS,as well as to analyze and explain the sources and causes of volatility.This paper focuses on the strength of the economic fluctuation and the driving factors of the BRIC countries.The article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter elaborates the research background and significance,methods and innovation of this paper.The second chapter is the summary of the existing literature,and further explanation of the necessity of the research.The third chapter is the analysis of the economic fluctuation characteristics of the BRICS.On the basis of combing and understanding the real situation of the economic development of the five countries in the past 20 years,we roughly grasp the characteristics of economic fluctuations of every country,as well as the synchronization among five countries.In the forth chapter,we use AR model,FSVAR model,and FAVAR model to explore the resource and factors of economic fluctuation of BRICS.The fifth chapter includes the conclusion and policy enlightenment of the paper.By combing the real situations of BRICS in nearly 20 years with empirical analysis,we find that,the economic fluctuations in these five countries in the past two decades are quite different,with the financial crisis as the demarcation line in 2008.Before 2008,thanks to a favorable global economic environment in general,the BRICS countries seized this opportunity to develop their economies,and the overall situation showed that not only the total economic volume expanded,but also the international status of the BRICS countries improved continuously.What's more,as a result of different export structures,the fluctuation of economic growth rate in China and India was similar,while Brazil,South Africa and Russia,which rely mainly on resource-based products,showed strong synchronization.After 2009,the economic developments of the BRICS were generally poor.Except the fast recovery from the crisis and continue rapid growth of India,China's economic growth rate slipped and the expansion trend began to weaken.Besides,Brazil,South Africa and Russia suffered different levels of economic recession,and in return,economic synchronization between BRICS was effected and changed.The synchronization between China and India,as well as South Africa and Russia,decreased significantly,while Brazil and Russia,which had fallen into worst recession,became further enhanced than before.First of all,the AR model tells that BRICS is mainly affected by the volatility rather than the persistence of factors.Then,the variance decomposition for GDP growth rate through FSVAR method shows that the international shocks are the main source of fluctuation in BRICS,exclude India.Finally,the impulse response analysis of FAVAR found that the economic activities of developed countries in Europe and the United States were more likely to cause positive impact on the economic fluctuation of BRICS,exclude India.Global inflation has had a negative impact on both countries,while commodity prices can make positive impact on Russia,Brazil and South Africa in the short term,but this effect is not sustainable.