Effect Of Uncertainty And Liquidity Constraints On Consumption Of Residents In China

After the 1990 s,China's economy entered the transition period :from the planned economic system to the market economy system development,from the closed economy to the open economic system development.In recent years,the international economic environment is on the brink of depression,the original economic growth mode is no longer applicable,states began a new round of economic reform.Changes in the economic system caused that China's urban and rural residents are faced with a strong uncertainty factors and liquidity constraints,which led to the status of low consumption and high savings of urban and rural residents.The existence of this situation seriously affected the long-term and stable development of China's economy.Therefore,it has a strong theoretical and policy significance to the consumption of rural residents in China that study the uncertainty of the transition period,liquidity constraints in depth and systematically.This paper uses the combination of theory and demonstration to demonstrate,mainly to do the following aspects of the work:1.Combing domestic and foreign literature on the impact of income uncertainty and liquidity constraints on the consumption of residents.2.According to the 1994-2014 macroeconomic analysis of China's consumption situation,draw the following conclusions :Compared with the international,the Chinese residents consumption rate was significantly lower,the government consumption rate is slightly higher;Residents' consumption growth lags behind GDP growth;The consumption structure of urban residents is changing with the development of economy.3.By the analysis of Chinese family tracking survey data(CFPS)that China's urban and rural residents face strong uncertainty and liquidity constraints.Under the framework of Leland's theory of precautionary savings to analyze the impact of uncertainty on household consumption.In addition,this paper creates a three-stage consumption model to analyze the change of consumer behavior under consumer constraints.4.Based on 29 provincial panel data,the GMM method is used to estimate the influence of analysis uncertainty and liquidity constraint on the consumption of urban and rural residents in China.The results show: uncertainty of expenditure has a positive impact on consumption;income uncertainty has a positive effect on the consumption of urban and rural residents;the liquidity constraint represented by the interest rate has a negative impact on the consumption of urban and rural residents.By comparing the empirical results of urban and rural areas,eastern,and western regions,it is found that the impact of uncertainty and liquidity constraints on urban residents is different from urban to rural areas.5.Using the Chinese family tracking survey data(CFPS)2012,2014 two years of cross-sectional data Using robust OLS estimation to analyze the impact of uncertainty and liquidity constraints on the consumption of urban and rural residents in China.The results show:first,the uncertainty and the existence of liquidity constraints make urban and rural residents to reduce consumption.Second,urban residents have a more perfect social security system,and more stable works,and on the basis of employment changes to measure income uncertainty,of income uncertainty on the impact of urban residents consumption decreased gradually;the consumption environment of urban consumption is better,more channels,the demand is relatively wide,spending increasing uncertainty,uncertainty of expenditure the effect of the consumption of urban residents increased gradually;the influence of income and expenditure uncertainty on the consumption of rural residents increased gradually,which is mainly attributed to the rural residents are engaged in technical content is low,replaced by high work,income uncertainty,the rural residents lack of rational consumption concept,preventive consumption behaviors are common;the interest rate effect of macroeconomic regulation and control and bring me now in the consumer credit market development is not perfect,resulting in the effect of liquidity constraints on consumption of urban and rural residents increased gradually.Third,the impact of uncertainty and liquidity constraints on the consumption of urban and rural residents are different.The impact of income uncertainty on urban household consumption between 2012 and 2014 is greater than that in rural areas.At the same time,expenditure uncertainty had less impact on urban residents than in rural areas.And,liquidity constraints had less impact on urban residents' consumption than in rural areas.In view of the current situation of uncertainty and liquidity constraints faced by our residents,the government should improve the residents' social security system,release the purchasing power of the residents and alleviate the uncertainties of the residents.Through the excavation and expansion of urban and rural residents' income channels,to promote employment,increase income,reduce the income of residents facing uncertainty.Second,improve the financial markets and related credit system,help our residents through consumer credit to smooth the consumption of each period.